Sitemap - 2020 - Elliott’s notebook

The best books I read in 2020

It's time to ditch polling averages that don't also show uncertainty

Some of the things I learned in 2020 📊 December 20, 2020

Giving people money is (surprise!) really popular right now

These data are an ominous warning about the future of American democracy 📊 December 13, 2020

Trumpism is here to stay

Critical thoughts on political data journalism 📊 December 6, 2020

Do the problems with election polls doom issue polling too?

This is the worst way to cover the polls. Please stop

When it comes to the polls, don't throw out the baby with the bathwater 📊 November 29, 2020

A political ideology with disbelief at its core

What people miss in the debate over turnout 📊 November 22, 2020

Election polling on the wrong side of maybe

Why this election map is so good

What 2020 taught us about polarization and the polls 📊 November 15, 2020

Lower your expectations for the polls

A unity candidate confronts a divided nation 📊 November 8, 2020

“A president for all Americans”

Your election night crystal ball 📊 November 1, 2020

2020 looks like it will be less polarized than 2016

With nine days left, massive polling error is Donald Trump's best shot to win

If Biden beats the polls in Alaska, what should we predict in New Jersey?

Election content with two weeks to go 📊 October 18, 2020

How election models factor in high turnout

Are state polls underestimating Joe Biden?

Trump’s job approval rating won’t save him 📊 October 11, 2020

What can Trump do to win?

Trump's poll numbers take a dive after an ugly debate and positive covid-19 test 📊 October 4, 2020

How Trump's positive covid-19 test might impact the election

Trump is scrambling for an opening

What Trump, trailing Biden, could get out of the debates 📊 September 27, 2020

America's founders empowered citizens to pick democracy over the Constitution

Tyranny of the minority 📊 September 20, 2020

Are election forecasts bad for democracy?

Biases in political journalism and election forecasting

Just how useful are the polls? 📊 September 13, 2020

This is exactly how covid-19 costs Trump voters

A Labor Day update to the presidential campaign

Polls suggest there is little room for Trump to sway voters 📊 September 6, 2020

Let's discuss how I cover the horse race

The data suggest that "law and order" probably won't save Trump

It's too early to declare any poll bounce for Trump; focus on the meaning of the news instead 📊 August 30, 2020

Why Joe Biden has better than a 60-70% chance of winning

Recommended books on polling

Objectivity and judgment in election handicapping 📊 August 23, 2020

Brief thoughts about The Election Forecast Wars

Joe Biden gets a Kamala bounce

Are elections getting easier to predict? 📊 August 16, 2020

My advice to new data journalists

Reasonable bounds on presidential election outcomes

What makes a model good? 📊 August 9, 2020

Are the polls tightening? AKA how to read aggregates like a pro.

Joe Biden is winning both new voters and vote-switchers 📊 August 2, 2020

Has the Midwest drifted back toward the Democrats?

Can we anticipate polling error? 📊 July 26, 2020

How to think about uncertainty in election models

MRP is not junk if you actually do it right 📊 July 19, 2020

It’s really looking like 2008 again

On government by public opinion 📊 July 12, 2020

How not to “unskew” the polls

When models break down

America and the next 244 years 📊 July 5, 2020

Is Trump losing the culture war?

How wrong could the polls be? 📊 June 28, 2020

Is Trump’s electoral-college advantage slipping?

I’m writing a book about polls and democracy

“Pollster who got it right in 2016 says...”

Should you trust polls with big margins of error? 📊 June 21, 2020

A list of the things that could break election models

One year on Substack 🎉

Are polls overestimating the Democrats again? 📊 June 14, 2020

How to think about “unskewing” the polls

Trump is doomed! Biden is doomed! Trump is back on top! Wait...

Biden is way ahead. Convince me I’m wrong

Why cover the horse race? 📊 May 24, 2020

The US House majority is not up for grabs

About Biden’s lead in state vs national polls (I’ve been saying this for weeks!) 📊 May 17, 2020

Sexism and Joe Biden’s shot at the White House

Joe Biden’s strong start in rural America 📊 May 10, 2020

Elites seem divided on reopening the country. The mass public? Not so much.

All eyes are on the sunbelt 📊 May 3, 2020

Trump is shielded from, but not immune to, a bad economy

Biden his time 📊 April 26, 2020

Covid-19 is taking its toll on Donald Trump’s popularity

How covid-19 exacerbates America’s urban-rural divides 📊 April 19, 2020

Online and live-caller polls disagree about Biden’s lead over Trump

A note on voting and the economy 📊 April 12, 2020

Joe Biden starts the 2020 general election as the clear favorite

Partisanship is killing us 📊 April 5, 2020

We're in a full-blown recession, if not worse

What polls do (and don't) say about November 📊 March 29, 2020

Grandma or the GDP?

Actually, data show fairly worrying trends about the US coronavirus response 📊 March 22, 2020

The Senate is in play

Project-based social distancing

Let's chat about polls! Quarantine style.

How covid-19 could impact electoral politics 📊 March 15, 2020

Why Bernie Sanders lost

Bernie’s revolution was not in vain 📊 March 8, 2020

Joe Biden's path to the nomination

What we know about electability 📊 March 1, 2020

We might be in for a surprise in South Carolina 

An early probabilistic forecast for the 2020 presidential election 📊 February 23, 2020

If 45% of adults approve of Trump, how many will vote for him?

The 2020 primary is peak ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ right now 📊 February 16, 2020

What happened in New Hampshire

How to be better election forecasters in 2020 📊 February 9, 2020

In Iowa, a victory for new advances in polling

The nightmare before Iowa 📊 February 2, 2020

American democracy is screwed

Obama-Trump voters are still Trump voters

This chart absolutely terrifies me

January 26, 2020 📊 Donald Trump changed the GOP. But has he weakened it?

How Bernie wins

Donald Trump changed the GOP. But has he weakened it?

What do you want to know about polling?

The polling error that could cause a big miss in Bernie Sanders’s favor

January 19, 2020 📊 The impeachment sticking point

How do we know that higher turnout benefits Democrats?

January 12, 2020 📊 Bernie Sanders is not throwing away his shot

About Tom Steyer's good polls from Fox News

January 5, 2020 📊 A war with Iran probably won’t help re-elect Trump

The Democrats' fundraising numbers are nuts