Sitemap - 2020 - Elliott’s notebook
The best books I read in 2020
It's time to ditch polling averages that don't also show uncertainty
Some of the things I learned in 2020 📊 December 20, 2020
Giving people money is (surprise!) really popular right now
These data are an ominous warning about the future of American democracy 📊 December 13, 2020
Trumpism is here to stay
Critical thoughts on political data journalism 📊 December 6, 2020
Do the problems with election polls doom issue polling too?
This is the worst way to cover the polls. Please stop
When it comes to the polls, don't throw out the baby with the bathwater 📊 November 29, 2020
A political ideology with disbelief at its core
What people miss in the debate over turnout 📊 November 22, 2020
Election polling on the wrong side of maybe
Why this election map is so good
What 2020 taught us about polarization and the polls 📊 November 15, 2020
Lower your expectations for the polls
A unity candidate confronts a divided nation 📊 November 8, 2020
“A president for all Americans”
Your election night crystal ball 📊 November 1, 2020
2020 looks like it will be less polarized than 2016
With nine days left, massive polling error is Donald Trump's best shot to win
If Biden beats the polls in Alaska, what should we predict in New Jersey?
Election content with two weeks to go 📊 October 18, 2020
How election models factor in high turnout
Are state polls underestimating Joe Biden?
Trump’s job approval rating won’t save him 📊 October 11, 2020
What can Trump do to win?
Trump's poll numbers take a dive after an ugly debate and positive covid-19 test 📊 October 4, 2020
How Trump's positive covid-19 test might impact the election
Trump is scrambling for an opening
What Trump, trailing Biden, could get out of the debates 📊 September 27, 2020
America's founders empowered citizens to pick democracy over the Constitution
Tyranny of the minority 📊 September 20, 2020
Are election forecasts bad for democracy?
Biases in political journalism and election forecasting
Just how useful are the polls? 📊 September 13, 2020
This is exactly how covid-19 costs Trump voters
A Labor Day update to the presidential campaign
Polls suggest there is little room for Trump to sway voters 📊 September 6, 2020
Let's discuss how I cover the horse race
The data suggest that "law and order" probably won't save Trump
It's too early to declare any poll bounce for Trump; focus on the meaning of the news instead 📊 August 30, 2020
Why Joe Biden has better than a 60-70% chance of winning
Recommended books on polling
Objectivity and judgment in election handicapping 📊 August 23, 2020
Brief thoughts about The Election Forecast Wars
Joe Biden gets a Kamala bounce
Are elections getting easier to predict? 📊 August 16, 2020
My advice to new data journalists
Reasonable bounds on presidential election outcomes
What makes a model good? 📊 August 9, 2020
Are the polls tightening? AKA how to read aggregates like a pro.
Joe Biden is winning both new voters and vote-switchers 📊 August 2, 2020
Has the Midwest drifted back toward the Democrats?
Can we anticipate polling error? 📊 July 26, 2020
How to think about uncertainty in election models
MRP is not junk if you actually do it right 📊 July 19, 2020
It’s really looking like 2008 again
On government by public opinion 📊 July 12, 2020
How not to “unskew” the polls
When models break down
America and the next 244 years 📊 July 5, 2020
Is Trump losing the culture war?
How wrong could the polls be? 📊 June 28, 2020
Is Trump’s electoral-college advantage slipping?
I’m writing a book about polls and democracy
“Pollster who got it right in 2016 says...”
Should you trust polls with big margins of error? 📊 June 21, 2020
A list of the things that could break election models
One year on Substack 🎉
Are polls overestimating the Democrats again? 📊 June 14, 2020
How to think about “unskewing” the polls
Trump is doomed! Biden is doomed! Trump is back on top! Wait...
Biden is way ahead. Convince me I’m wrong
Why cover the horse race? 📊 May 24, 2020
The US House majority is not up for grabs
About Biden’s lead in state vs national polls (I’ve been saying this for weeks!) 📊 May 17, 2020
Sexism and Joe Biden’s shot at the White House
Joe Biden’s strong start in rural America 📊 May 10, 2020
Elites seem divided on reopening the country. The mass public? Not so much.
All eyes are on the sunbelt 📊 May 3, 2020
Trump is shielded from, but not immune to, a bad economy
Biden his time 📊 April 26, 2020
Covid-19 is taking its toll on Donald Trump’s popularity
How covid-19 exacerbates America’s urban-rural divides 📊 April 19, 2020
Online and live-caller polls disagree about Biden’s lead over Trump
A note on voting and the economy 📊 April 12, 2020
Joe Biden starts the 2020 general election as the clear favorite
Partisanship is killing us 📊 April 5, 2020
We're in a full-blown recession, if not worse
What polls do (and don't) say about November 📊 March 29, 2020
Grandma or the GDP?
Actually, data show fairly worrying trends about the US coronavirus response 📊 March 22, 2020
The Senate is in play
Project-based social distancing
Let's chat about polls! Quarantine style.
How covid-19 could impact electoral politics 📊 March 15, 2020
Why Bernie Sanders lost
Bernie’s revolution was not in vain 📊 March 8, 2020
Joe Biden's path to the nomination
What we know about electability 📊 March 1, 2020
We might be in for a surprise in South Carolina
An early probabilistic forecast for the 2020 presidential election 📊 February 23, 2020
If 45% of adults approve of Trump, how many will vote for him?
The 2020 primary is peak ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ right now 📊 February 16, 2020
What happened in New Hampshire
How to be better election forecasters in 2020 📊 February 9, 2020
In Iowa, a victory for new advances in polling
The nightmare before Iowa 📊 February 2, 2020
American democracy is screwed
Obama-Trump voters are still Trump voters
This chart absolutely terrifies me
January 26, 2020 📊 Donald Trump changed the GOP. But has he weakened it?
How Bernie wins
Donald Trump changed the GOP. But has he weakened it?
What do you want to know about polling?
The polling error that could cause a big miss in Bernie Sanders’s favor
January 19, 2020 📊 The impeachment sticking point
How do we know that higher turnout benefits Democrats?
January 12, 2020 📊 Bernie Sanders is not throwing away his shot
About Tom Steyer's good polls from Fox News
January 5, 2020 📊 A war with Iran probably won’t help re-elect Trump
The Democrats' fundraising numbers are nuts