Politics by the Numbers

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If Biden beats the polls in Alaska, what should we predict in New Jersey?

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If Biden beats the polls in Alaska, what should we predict in New Jersey?

Thinking about a weird problem in 538’s election model

G. Elliott Morris
Oct 25, 2020
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If Biden beats the polls in Alaska, what should we predict in New Jersey?

gelliottmorris.substack.com

Building predictive models for elections is tough stuff. There are so many different factors to take into account, and making an adjustment for one of them can cause weird downstream effects in how y…

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