Trumpism is here to stay

Trump is a relatively popular conservative president, and the psychological roots of his appeal aren't going anywhere anytime soon

The Atlantic has published two articles about the coming irrelevancy of Trump over the last couple of weeks. The authors have written that “the odds that Americans will grow bored with the ever more histrionic antics of the sore loser they just kicked out of office are pretty good” and “Trump won’t go away entirely, and he certainly won’t get quiet, but fewer Americans will listen to or care about what he has to say.”

I have two issues with this. First, it’s not at all clear to me whether he will slip out of the public eye after exiting office. He is publicly entertaining a second bid for office, and his allies in the media are likely to relitigate his tenure endlessly for the foreseeable future, ensuring that at least the idea of Trump as a leader stays in public view.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, whether Trump himself stays relevant is really beside the larger point; Trumpism is here to stay. The cult of power and personality that delivered 70m votes to the outgoing president looks more devoted to him than ever. Although they represent a minority of America’s voters, their numbers and dedication warrant a reconsideration of the points implied by the “Trump might just going away” schtick. (The remainder of this newsletter will focus on this second paragraph. More below the fold!)

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First, let me begin with an important clarifying note. By Trumpism I am referring not to specific qualities of the president’s leadership (some people have alleged that his “outsider appeal” and business “acumen” are an important part of his ideological brand), but rather to the psychological traits that drive his support. These may include a combination of social conservatism, right-wing populism, ethnocentrism, illiberalism, authoritarianism, political idolatry, and conspiracism, among other things. We ought to prefer this definition of Trumpism to others because it gets to the root of the issue, which is (apparently unconditional) loyalty to the ideas that the president embodies, which I believe are bound to continue after he’s gone.

I suppose that we might consider the GOP on one of two paths. Either it continues to embrace most of the above traits in its leaders, maybe with a more “likeable” leader than Trump, or it changes course to… reject it? Here’s how David Frum characterized the alternative course:

It may take time for Republicans to acknowledge to themselves the truth about the Trump years. But they can act on that truth even if they do not acknowledge it. They can begin by putting an end to Trump’s postelection tantrum and accepting without further weasel talk the reality of Joe Biden’s victory and his presidency. Then they can quit the gerrymandering business and recommit themselves to equal voting rights—competing to win over voters rather than disenfranchising them. Their goal should be creating a modern party of the center-right, redeemed from the squalor of the Trump era, unafraid of elections equally and fairly open to every adult citizen.

Since Republicans will need to find a way to increase their support with educated white Americans and non-whites if they want to win the presidency, I guess there’s some reason to think they might turn away from Trump. But I don’t think it’s particularly likely. For one, they made significant gains with Latinos this year by doubling down on Trumpism, not rejecting it.

For one thing, early polls (I know, I know) suggest that Trump would be competitive in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. We shouldn’t use that as a prediction of what will happen then, obviously, but it’s a good measure of what the voters have an appetite for right now. And Trumpism is really the only thing on the menu.

Political Polls @Politics_Polls

2024 North Carolina Republican Primary: Trump 76% Haley 6% Cruz 3% Romney 3% Rubio 2% Someone else 5% Undecided 6% University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School/@betusracing, LV, 11/30-12/2

busr.agNorth Carolina Republican Primary Polls | BUSRNorth Carolina Republican Primary Polls presented by the Lee School of Business at UNLV, Qualtrics and BUSR.

For more evidence of the dedication to Trumpism, see this YouGov/Economist poll that shows Republican voters are firmly committed to Trump’s attempts to steal the election.

In fact, if you go through YouGov’s archives, you’ll find plenty of other evidence of Republican voters’ support for various Trumpism. Broadly speaking, the rank-and-file thinks immigration makes the US worse off (47%), would support postponing elections if their leaders supported it (47%) and that enough “illegals” voted to tip the outcome of the election (84%), and on and on. This matches up with the anecdotal accounts of their support for lots of these things, and also pockets of violence toward other Americans (see: Charlottesville, 2017) and even toward leaders of rival political parties (See: attempted Whitmire kidnapping, 2020).

(Separately, I think we could make a good case that the GOP’s rejection of mutual toleration alone outweighs any of the other arguments about the promise of Trump fading away into obscurity.)

This all underscores the point that Republican voters still overwhelming support Trump and what he stands for. Given the party’s relative electoral success at embracing Trumpism this year, I think the most likely course of action is to rely only on more polarization and foul-play (gerrymandering, suppression, attacks on election norms) to try to tilt the scales in their favor. Only slight modifications to their overall party platform could help their prospects with other marginal voters (white educate ones) and they might not even need to do that, given that midterm drop-off usually favors the opposition party, which should help them to regain the House majority in 2022/2026 and continue to make progress in state legislatures in the coming years.

Allow me to add one parting thought to really hammer home the point. Even if Republicans nominate candidates (eg, in next year’s election for Virginia governor) who is not Trumpy, that doesn’t mean Trumpism is gone. And looking forward to 2024, even Nikki Haley (considered in DC to be a leading candidate for the nomination, if not the default) appears to stand for the majority of what the outgoing president does.