The Senate is in play

The battle of the Steves

Montana Governor Steve Bullock has put the United States Senate in play.

By running against incumbent Republican senator Steve Daines, Bullock (who decided to enter the race earlier this month) is exerting enough pressure on the senate map to significantly increase the odds that Democrats take the chamber. A new poll finds the two Steves tied at 47% in the Treasure State.

This is a bit surprising at first glance. Donald Trump won Montana by 20 percentage points in the 2016 election. It’s also a rural, western state, which should make it more Republican down-ballot. (I’ve always thought of Montana as the type of place where cowboys go when they don’t like hot weather. )

But such an analysis ignores that Montana also has another Democratic senator (Jon Tester)) already, and that Bullock is a relatively popular incumbent governor with a proven ability to win Republican voters. While Trump was trouncing Clinton there in 2016, Bullock was beating his Republican opponent, Greg Gianforte, by 4 percentage points. We election-watchers knew Bullock would be strong if he ran; it’s one of the reasons I said Bullock shouldn’t be running for president back in the summer of 2019.

Betting markets (for whatever they are worth) are now giving the best odds yet to Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate in November.

Bullock is not the only strong Democratic challenger. In Colorado, former governor John Hickenlooper (who also ran for president last year!) is proving a formidable challenger against incumbent Republican senator Cory Gardner. Senate seats in Maine, Arizona, North Carolina, and Iowa—all currently held by Republicans— are up for grabs as well.

I could put together a formal forecasting model for the senate to provide a precise probability, but I don’t think I need to do so to give a rough verdict on the race right now. Despite expectations to the contrary last year, the chamber is competitive. Republicans are still favored to keep their majority, if only slightly so.