Election polling on the wrong side of maybe

The misguided reason why so many people are so quick to dismiss polling


Last week I wrote you a newsletter arguing that we should lower our expectations for pre-election polls. That was not an argument that polls are bad per se, but that spot-on election predictions in 2008 and 2012 gave many people a false sense of how accurate surveys can be. In our modern era of medium-turnout, polarized, competitive elections, …

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