The Democrats' fundraising numbers are nuts
These data are the most optimistic sign for Bernie Sanders's campaign
Since you subscribe to this email, you likely know that I’ve been pretty bearish on Bernie Sanders’s chances of winning the Democratic Party’s nomination for the 2020 presidential election. Despite a recent 1-2 point upset, his polling numbers have been pretty middling throughout the campaign. His favorability ratings are particularly poor for a candidate as well-known as he is. The share of voters who say they’d be disappointed if he wins the nomination is higher than for his major competitors.
Yet there is hope for Sanders. It comes in the form of a massive network of volunteers and, perhaps as important (or maybe more), a huge base of donors. As of January 2020, the campaign has passed 5 million individual donors. That is far more than anyone else in the primary. The total number of donations over the last quarter—nearly $35m, according to the campaign—is also more than any of the other 2020 candidates.
Sanders’s haul is impressive. It means his campaign will be flush with cash as the crucial Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primaries get underway over the next month and a half. And it also means there’s a lot of engaged volunteers out there who might lend their time, and money, to things like canvassing and phone-banking. If focused in the first two states, a large army of volunteers could make a huge difference. The cash also means more staff organizers for those volunteers, more housing and food for staff, more digital and TV ad buys. Money can help Sanders’s campaign scale—at exactly the right time.
It’s worth noting that Sanders is also polling at his best position since May. According to The Economist’s aggregate, 18% of Democratic primary voters nationally support him. This suggests an upward momentum to his campaign. And with as many donors (and donations) as he has, a continued positive trajectory is certainly possible—perhaps even likely.
Editor’s note:
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—Elliott