When models break down

Why Helmut Norpoth’s election forecast is so fraught with errors

Confirmation bias is a hell of a phenomenon. This search for confirmatory evidence—or even the tendency to warp facts into confirmatory evidence—is even stronger when one has staked her professional reputation on the high-profile successes (and failures) of their work. And confirmation bias is the best explanation I can think of to explain why Helmut No…

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