Politics by the Numbers

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When models break down

gelliottmorris.substack.com

When models break down

Why Helmut Norpoth’s election forecast is so fraught with errors

G. Elliott Morris
Jul 10, 2020
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When models break down

gelliottmorris.substack.com

Confirmation bias is a hell of a phenomenon. This search for confirmatory evidence—or even the tendency to warp facts into confirmatory evidence—is even stronger when one has staked her professional …

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