About Tom Steyer's good polls from Fox News
State-level averages still short him, and he's near 0% in the crucial contests of Iowa and New Hampshire
Billionaire 2020 Democratic candidate Tom Steyer got some good polls from Fox News’s pollsters Thursday evening. According to their surveys, his support has increased from 4 to 15% in South Carolina and 5 to 12% in Nevada over the past 3 months:
These numbers may be causing you to re-evaluate everything you’ve ever known about the primary. Allow me to reassure you of your sanity—and simultaneously summon some rain over Steyer’s parade.
Despite the good polls, Steyer is still faring poorly in the state-level polling averages, and his probability of winning the nomination have barely shifted. In South Carolina, the 538 model reckons Steyer will win between 0 and 20% of the vote on election night, amounting to 2 pledged delegates (out of 54). He doesn’t fare much better in Nevada, where the data suggest he’ll win 5% of the vote and 1 delegate (though again, confidence intervals are wide).
Even if Steyer actually was doing well in SC and NV, he’s certainly not in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote. And if he can’t do well in those states, he’ll probably lose his edge in the other two.
Regardless, what explains the discrepancy between the sets of states? My gut says it’s the disparities in both earned and bought media. In Iowa and New Hampshire, voters have been exposed to a lot of earned media from candidate visits; B-roll from diners, coverage of stump speeches, etc. But in Nevada and South Carolina, there has been less of that. Instead, Steyer has been pumping the airwaves full of his advertisements. It could be voters are just more familiar with his plaid ties by now.
I wouldn’t make a big deal about this one poll. If Steyer starts gaining grown in Iowa and/or New Hampshire—or nationally!—then it may be time to think twice about his chances. Fox News’s data haven’t changed my priors much, though.
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