George Gallup was off by 12. Think about that next time you see an election poll miss an outcome.
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Pundits who ignored the polls and predicted a "red wave" got burned
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Three articles about the polls to read before Tuesday | Links for October 30-November 5, 2022Hello from the Washington DC metro area, where it is a sunny and unseasonably warm, 75-degree day. I am writing to you from my back patio where …
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Kitchen Confidential, but make it about polls
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How much polling bias could Senate Democrats overcome? | Saturday thread for October 16-22, 2022Happy Saturday, subscribers! By far the most common question I get this time of year is some variant of “who is going to win the election” (or “…
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A math and history lesson on why "unskewing" the polls is so hard
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Four tips from me for getting smarter about the polls. Plus, a brief history of survey methodology and October Q&A announcement!
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The House tipping point | Saturday thread for September 18-24, 2022For a brief hour yesterday afternoon, FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate of House “generic ballot” polls showed the Democrats beating the Republicans b…
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How to tell a good poll from a bad one | Saturday thread for September 11-17, 2022NOTE: This was previously a gated post for subscribers only. I have unlocked it on request from several readers. Let’s talk briefly today about …
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How to think about bias in the polls this year | Saturday thread for September 4-10, 2022Dear subscribers, This week marked the federal Labor Day holiday in the US, and with it the unofficial start to campaign season—when polls are s…
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Why Democrats' poll numbers are really rising | Saturday subscribers-only thread for August 28-September 3, 2022Dear subscribers, I do not like to do a lot of tweet myth-busting a lot for this newsletter, but something this week warrants it. Will Stancil, …
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Saturday thread for August 14-20, 2022: Can Democrats defy midterms gravity?Dear subscribers, One constant feature of political analysis is the tendency for both pundits and prognosticators to overstate changes in the po…
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