Elliott’s notebook
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A revised method for measuring pollster quality, now published at 538
A few tips for reading 538's updated pollster ratings, and why I think they're so cool
Jan 25
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G. Elliott Morris
11
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A revised method for measuring pollster quality, now published at 538
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Haley and Trump get a poll bounce before New Hampshire
Momentum for Trump could seal Haley and DeSantis' fate
Jan 20
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G. Elliott Morris
16
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Haley and Trump get a poll bounce before New Hampshire
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Happy Election Day -300!
Polls are now officially not totally useless at historical election prediction (this is not a guarantee for the future)
Jan 11
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G. Elliott Morris
11
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Happy Election Day -300!
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Trump's 60% in primary polls could be more like 90% in delegate math
His leads pushes him just past most states' winner-takes-all delegate thresholds
Jan 5
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G. Elliott Morris
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Trump's 60% in primary polls could be more like 90% in delegate math
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Polls may be overestimating support for third-party candidates
Early strength for independents like Robert F Kennedy Jr is likely a mirage
Jan 5
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G. Elliott Morris
1
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Polls may be overestimating support for third-party candidates
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Would young Americans really vote for Trump today?
Why I’m skeptical of some puzzling polls
Jan 4
•
G. Elliott Morris
8
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Would young Americans really vote for Trump today?
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The decline of Vivek Ramaswamy
The entrepreneur has struggled to find a lane to run in
Jan 2
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G. Elliott Morris
1
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The decline of Vivek Ramaswamy
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2
Iowans vote in two weeks. Will the GOP primary end there?
Given his lead now, Trump losing the nomination would be one of the most surprising political outcomes ever
Jan 2
•
G. Elliott Morris
18
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Iowans vote in two weeks. Will the GOP primary end there?
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December 2023
The real "crisis" in polling
Issue polling is difficult and imprecise. But if anything, the crisis is in political analysis
Dec 5, 2023
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G. Elliott Morris
11
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The real "crisis" in polling
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November 2023
Is it too early for 2024 polls to be predictive?
$%*& yes! But they can tell us about public opinion today.
Nov 7, 2023
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G. Elliott Morris
12
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Is it too early for 2024 polls to be predictive?
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September 2023
How to read outlier polls
Where they come from, and what to do with them
Sep 28, 2023
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G. Elliott Morris
12
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How to read outlier polls
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May 2023
A new framework for media polling analysis
Dear readers, ABC News announced on Friday that they will be hiring me as their new “Editorial Director of Data Analytics” effective late June. This new…
May 22, 2023
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G. Elliott Morris
23
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A new framework for media polling analysis
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