Elliott’s notebook

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STRENGTH IN NUMBERS
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A revised method for measuring pollster quality, now published at 538
A few tips for reading 538's updated pollster ratings, and why I think they're so cool
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G. Elliott Morris
3
Haley and Trump get a poll bounce before New Hampshire
Momentum for Trump could seal Haley and DeSantis' fate
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G. Elliott Morris
4
Happy Election Day -300!
Polls are now officially not totally useless at historical election prediction (this is not a guarantee for the future)
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G. Elliott Morris
2
Trump's 60% in primary polls could be more like 90% in delegate math
His leads pushes him just past most states' winner-takes-all delegate thresholds
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G. Elliott Morris
Polls may be overestimating support for third-party candidates
Early strength for independents like Robert F Kennedy Jr is likely a mirage
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G. Elliott Morris
Would young Americans really vote for Trump today?
Why I’m skeptical of some puzzling polls
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G. Elliott Morris
1
The decline of Vivek Ramaswamy
The entrepreneur has struggled to find a lane to run in
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G. Elliott Morris
2
Iowans vote in two weeks. Will the GOP primary end there?
Given his lead now, Trump losing the nomination would be one of the most surprising political outcomes ever
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G. Elliott Morris
1

December 2023

The real "crisis" in polling
Issue polling is difficult and imprecise. But if anything, the crisis is in political analysis
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G. Elliott Morris
6

November 2023

Is it too early for 2024 polls to be predictive?
$%*& yes! But they can tell us about public opinion today.
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G. Elliott Morris
4

September 2023

How to read outlier polls
Where they come from, and what to do with them
 • 
G. Elliott Morris
10

May 2023

© 2024 G. Elliott Morris
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