Polls are now officially not totally useless at historical election prediction (this is not a guarantee for the future)
When you say a margin of +/- 20 points, what uncertainty measure is this? Standard deviation of the change? A 95% prediction interval? Something else I'm not thinking of!
When you say a margin of +/- 20 points, what uncertainty measure is this? Standard deviation of the change? A 95% prediction interval? Something else I'm not thinking of!