Sitemap - 2021 - Elliott’s notebook

A Covid-19 dispatch | No. 176 — December 26, 2021

A new study shows how polarization alone is not responsible for the surge in willingness to commit partisan violence

“Wishcasting” the future of American politics | No. 174 — December 12, 2021

Politics is about identity

Saturday subscribers-only post: Extras from a lecture on the future of polling and election forecasting

Young Americans give me more hope for substantial electoral and democracy reform

For subscribers only: A closer look at the partisan gap in consumer sentiment

How responsive should a government be to its people? | No. 171 — November 21, 2021

Political polarization (of policy preferences) is dramatically overestimated by partisans and the media | No. 170 — November 14, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread: polls on Facebook and the (gut) wisdom of crowds

Is covid-19 dragging down Joe Biden’s approval rating, or helping it? | No. 169 — November 7, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread: closing thoughts on the elections in Virginia and New Jersey

Exit polls tell conflicting stories of the 2021 Virginia governor's race

What I'm watching for in Virginia on Tuesday | No. 168 — October 31, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread on the polls in Virginia and potential issues identifying likely voters

The Democrats v Manchinema and the strategic paradox of the progressive left

Saturday subscribers-only thread: If you give people money, will they vote for you? Maybe a little!

Finally, we have evidence pointing to a causal link between Trump support and covid-19 behaviors

Popular economic policy proposals are not enough to save the Democrats 📊 October 17, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread on economic populism, the Build Back Better Act, and 2022

Does it matter if a majority of Americans say their financial situation is good today?

The debate over the future of the Democratic Party is missing a key finding from political science 📊 October 10, 2021

What education polarization and political arithmetic can tell us about 2022 — and the next decade

The space between us threatens to swallow us whole

Five books that taught me a lot about politics—and people

Saturday October 2, 2021

What people are missing about the state of the polls—and the polling models 📊 September 26, 2021

Factionalism and electoral authoritarianism are the biggest threats to American democracy today

More evidence that polls are pretty good, actually — maybe even better than you've been told

Subscribers-only thread on [*waves hand in air*] "all this" going on

Media coverage of California's recall election highlights big issues with popular poll aggregation models

What fish can teach us about democracy 📊 September 12, 2021

Subscribers-only thread on public opinion towards civil liberties and 9/11 — plus, general newsletter feedback request

Exponential social sorting and the Democratic dilemma

Saturday subscribers-only thread on five reforms that could improve democracy

A big chunk of Biden's approval slump could be partisan non-response 📊 August 29, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread on the Democrats' midterms calculus

Biden job approval, more Census graphs, and an increase in financial hardship in red states 📊 August 22, 2021

Saturday-on-Sunday subscribers-only thread about Biden's job approval ratings (mostly post-Kabul) and partisan non-response

More Census graphs! (showing higher political polarization by county population growth rates)

The backlash to strategic issue polling is not what it seems 📊 August 15, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread on the popularity of infrastructure spending, and on getting left behind

Saturday subscribers-only thread on concern about the delta variant

A hot thermostat and partisan vaccine backlash 📊 August 1, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread on Biden's personal versus policy popularity

Even self-government is now a partisan issue 📊 July 23, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread on Republican support for climate policy

The "worst polls in decades" call key assumptions of surveying, and forecasting, into question

Did the CDC's revised masking guidelines in May cause the current spike in covid-19 cases? 📊 July 18, 2021

Two-thirds of southern Republicans want their states to secede from the union

Nearly 6-in-10 Americans say they are thriving as pandemic life is ending for many 📊 July 11, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread on redefining bipartisanship

Why did the GOP slide so far towards authoritarianism between 2011 and 2020?

Walking backwards up the mountain

June 20, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread on life returning to normal

The tension between "popularism" as an electoral strategy and a democratic one 📊 June 13, 2021

Saturday subscribers-only thread for June 12, 2021

Polls show non-voters, not Trump voters, make up the largest share of vaccine-reluctant Americans

Joe Manchin and trap of the Senate filibuster 📊 June 6, 2021

Sunday subscribers-only thread for June 6, 2021

How increasing education polarization could help Democrats in the 2022 midterms

An anti-democratic faction and minoritarian electoral institutions are destroying our republic. What can be done? 📊 May 30, 2021

Sunday subscribers-only thread for May 30, 2021

There is a deep partisan divide in covid vaccine hesitancy and masking habits... but it could be deeper, right?

Covid surveys are one of many inputs into complex models of human behavior 📊 May 23, 2021

Sunday subscribers-only thread for May 23, 2021

The Immunity Treadmill: How covid-19 vaccine resistance could perpetually push herd immunity out of reach

Sunday subscribers-only thread for May 16, 2021

Yes, you can generally trust issue polling — but there’s a catch

Ranked-choice voting can help us slow the anti-democracy whirlpool 📊 May 9, 2021

The Big Lie is the central litmus test for Republicans running for office

Are preferences for more government spending a residual Trump effect, or the new normal? 📊 May 2, 2021

Sunday subscribers thread for May 2, 2021

Why we can't easily compare Joe Biden's approval ratings with past presidents' numbers

Titled book submission post

What if we saw the polls as tools for popular sovereignty? 📊 April 25, 2021

Sunday subscribers thread for April 25, 2021

Can we trust the polls on policy issues?

The cracked looking glass of public opinion polls 📊 April 18, 2021

Sunday subscribers thread for April 18, 2021

The public is in the mood for big social spending

Will election polls be more accurate now that Trump out of office?

Sunday subscribers thread for April 11, 2021

Two things you need to know about trends in US party affiliation

Who died and made Plato the king of Athenian democratic ideation?

Joe Biden’s master plan: do popular stuff and tell people about it 📊 April 4, 2021

Sunday subscribers thread for April 4, 2021

The focus on electoral math obscures the bigger story on Georgia's new voting laws

New polling reveals the struggle for health care among low-income Americans

Did the campaign to "Defund The Police" really cost Democrats votes in 2020?📊 March 28, 2021

Sunday subscribers thread for March 28, 2021

Weak congressional action could hurt global opinion toward the US

“But look at the poll, Batman!”

How Democrats can break the midterms curse 📊 March 21, 2021

Sunday subscribers thread for March 21, 2021

Moving off the gold standard

Sunday subscribers thread for March 14, 2021

Democracy is not conditional on the “quality” of a person’s attitudes

The public got what it wanted with Biden's covid-19 and economic relief bill

Will the Democrats’ covid-19 bill help them win over lower-income whites?

Untitled book title post

The week America revived its democracy 📊 March 7, 2021

Sunday subscribers thread for March 7, 2021

The doom loop and the anti-democratic whirlpool

It's Donald Trump's party, Republicans are just living in it 📊 February 28, 2021

Sunday open thread for February 28, 2021

The faulty logic of defending the filibuster

Give public opinion a chance 📊 February 21, 2021

The future of public opinion polling

Three lessons from Donald Trump's second, closer acquittal 📊 February 14, 2021

The Democrats could go even big(ger) on their economic stimulus

Think big: political reform must be cultural, not just institutional

Support for convicting Trump is higher now than during his first impeachment

Which path will the Republican Party take? 📊 February 7, 2021

How much trouble is the GOP really in?

Democrats will win more votes passing popular policies than compromising for bipartisanship's sake 📊 January 31, 2021

How popular are progressive policies, really?

How strong is Biden's mandate for change?

The majority makes its stand, again, against Donald Trump 📊 January 17, 2021

How illiberal is the American voter?

What people think about the mob attack on the US Capitol 📊 January 10, 2021

We are witnessing the consequences of Republican radicalization

Georgia runoff results thread — early returns are good for the Democrats

How much can we trust these polls out of Georgia?

Nail-biter Senate races — and an attempted coup — in Georgia 📊 January 3, 2021