Sitemap - 2021 - Elliott’s notebook
A Covid-19 dispatch | No. 176 — December 26, 2021
“Wishcasting” the future of American politics | No. 174 — December 12, 2021
Young Americans give me more hope for substantial electoral and democracy reform
For subscribers only: A closer look at the partisan gap in consumer sentiment
How responsive should a government be to its people? | No. 171 — November 21, 2021
Saturday subscribers-only thread: polls on Facebook and the (gut) wisdom of crowds
Is covid-19 dragging down Joe Biden’s approval rating, or helping it? | No. 169 — November 7, 2021
Saturday subscribers-only thread: closing thoughts on the elections in Virginia and New Jersey
Exit polls tell conflicting stories of the 2021 Virginia governor's race
What I'm watching for in Virginia on Tuesday | No. 168 — October 31, 2021
The Democrats v Manchinema and the strategic paradox of the progressive left
Saturday subscribers-only thread: If you give people money, will they vote for you? Maybe a little!
Finally, we have evidence pointing to a causal link between Trump support and covid-19 behaviors
Popular economic policy proposals are not enough to save the Democrats 📊 October 17, 2021
Saturday subscribers-only thread on economic populism, the Build Back Better Act, and 2022
Does it matter if a majority of Americans say their financial situation is good today?
What education polarization and political arithmetic can tell us about 2022 — and the next decade
The space between us threatens to swallow us whole
Five books that taught me a lot about politics—and people
What people are missing about the state of the polls—and the polling models 📊 September 26, 2021
Factionalism and electoral authoritarianism are the biggest threats to American democracy today
More evidence that polls are pretty good, actually — maybe even better than you've been told
Subscribers-only thread on [*waves hand in air*] "all this" going on
What fish can teach us about democracy 📊 September 12, 2021
Exponential social sorting and the Democratic dilemma
Saturday subscribers-only thread on five reforms that could improve democracy
A big chunk of Biden's approval slump could be partisan non-response 📊 August 29, 2021
Saturday subscribers-only thread on the Democrats' midterms calculus
More Census graphs! (showing higher political polarization by county population growth rates)
The backlash to strategic issue polling is not what it seems 📊 August 15, 2021
Saturday subscribers-only thread on concern about the delta variant
A hot thermostat and partisan vaccine backlash 📊 August 1, 2021
Saturday subscribers-only thread on Biden's personal versus policy popularity
Even self-government is now a partisan issue 📊 July 23, 2021
Saturday subscribers-only thread on Republican support for climate policy
The "worst polls in decades" call key assumptions of surveying, and forecasting, into question
Two-thirds of southern Republicans want their states to secede from the union
Nearly 6-in-10 Americans say they are thriving as pandemic life is ending for many 📊 July 11, 2021
Saturday subscribers-only thread on redefining bipartisanship
Why did the GOP slide so far towards authoritarianism between 2011 and 2020?
Walking backwards up the mountain
Saturday subscribers-only thread on life returning to normal
The tension between "popularism" as an electoral strategy and a democratic one 📊 June 13, 2021
Saturday subscribers-only thread for June 12, 2021
Polls show non-voters, not Trump voters, make up the largest share of vaccine-reluctant Americans
Joe Manchin and trap of the Senate filibuster 📊 June 6, 2021
Sunday subscribers-only thread for June 6, 2021
How increasing education polarization could help Democrats in the 2022 midterms
Sunday subscribers-only thread for May 30, 2021
Covid surveys are one of many inputs into complex models of human behavior 📊 May 23, 2021
Sunday subscribers-only thread for May 23, 2021
Sunday subscribers-only thread for May 16, 2021
Yes, you can generally trust issue polling — but there’s a catch
Ranked-choice voting can help us slow the anti-democracy whirlpool 📊 May 9, 2021
The Big Lie is the central litmus test for Republicans running for office
Sunday subscribers thread for May 2, 2021
Why we can't easily compare Joe Biden's approval ratings with past presidents' numbers
What if we saw the polls as tools for popular sovereignty? 📊 April 25, 2021
Sunday subscribers thread for April 25, 2021
Can we trust the polls on policy issues?
The cracked looking glass of public opinion polls 📊 April 18, 2021
Sunday subscribers thread for April 18, 2021
The public is in the mood for big social spending
Will election polls be more accurate now that Trump out of office?
Sunday subscribers thread for April 11, 2021
Two things you need to know about trends in US party affiliation
Who died and made Plato the king of Athenian democratic ideation?
Joe Biden’s master plan: do popular stuff and tell people about it 📊 April 4, 2021
Sunday subscribers thread for April 4, 2021
The focus on electoral math obscures the bigger story on Georgia's new voting laws
New polling reveals the struggle for health care among low-income Americans
Did the campaign to "Defund The Police" really cost Democrats votes in 2020?📊 March 28, 2021
Sunday subscribers thread for March 28, 2021
Weak congressional action could hurt global opinion toward the US
“But look at the poll, Batman!”
How Democrats can break the midterms curse 📊 March 21, 2021
Sunday subscribers thread for March 21, 2021
Sunday subscribers thread for March 14, 2021
Democracy is not conditional on the “quality” of a person’s attitudes
The public got what it wanted with Biden's covid-19 and economic relief bill
Will the Democrats’ covid-19 bill help them win over lower-income whites?
The week America revived its democracy 📊 March 7, 2021
Sunday subscribers thread for March 7, 2021
The doom loop and the anti-democratic whirlpool
It's Donald Trump's party, Republicans are just living in it 📊 February 28, 2021
Sunday open thread for February 28, 2021
The faulty logic of defending the filibuster
Give public opinion a chance 📊 February 21, 2021
The future of public opinion polling
Three lessons from Donald Trump's second, closer acquittal 📊 February 14, 2021
The Democrats could go even big(ger) on their economic stimulus
Think big: political reform must be cultural, not just institutional
Support for convicting Trump is higher now than during his first impeachment
Which path will the Republican Party take? 📊 February 7, 2021
How much trouble is the GOP really in?
How popular are progressive policies, really?
How strong is Biden's mandate for change?
The majority makes its stand, again, against Donald Trump 📊 January 17, 2021
How illiberal is the American voter?
What people think about the mob attack on the US Capitol 📊 January 10, 2021
We are witnessing the consequences of Republican radicalization
Georgia runoff results thread — early returns are good for the Democrats
How much can we trust these polls out of Georgia?
Nail-biter Senate races — and an attempted coup — in Georgia 📊 January 3, 2021