It is later than I expected to write this, but you know how Sundays go...
There are a few stories to discuss in the comments this week:
The voter restrictions passed by Georgia Republican legislators and signed by the state’s Republican governor on Thursday Friday
Biden’s upcoming $3 trillion infrastructure + extras bill, which he’s expected to announce later this week
The politics of gun control and immigration, where Democrats have the edge on specific policies but polls find are less trusted to “handle” the issue than Republicans.
As a programming note: I’ll be around for the rest of the evening while I write the weekly free newsletter recapping polling news and updating you on my output.
PS: do you like these weekly chats? I started them last month because I get a lot of emails from y’all on the weekends, and I figure (a) it’s better for us to chat publicly and (b) U can use this as a way to keep people signed up for the newsletter. Let me know what you think.
I like the weekly chats. In re voter suppression measures, there are 12 states that have passed or are considering voter suppression laws, and that get 20% or more of their state budgets from federal aid. Therefore, as the President has the House, and the House has the purse strings, the President can talk to the Senators of these 12 states and remind them of their federal financial dependence, and urge them to vote for HR 1 in the Senate.
The GA law is an atrocity, and yet, somehow, still could have been worse. I do think it will depress 2022 turnout if it stands. Adding an entirely unnecessary ID requirement to absentee ballots is a serious blow after a million voters became exposed and accustomed to the process this past cycle.
That said, I'm still optimistic about HR 1. The people on the Hill advancing the bill were encouraged by Manchin's statement this week, and supposedly Sinema is on board as well. The other thing that's been significantly under-appreciated by the media is just how committed leadership is to passing this – and passing it as is without any significant modifications. Pelosi and Schumer have really championed this, and getting it done is a real priority for them.
So assuming it passes and Biden signs, just like GA's law, it heads to the courts. Initial Census numbers will be released in the summer, so states can begin to work on redistricting. However, I'm pretty skeptical about this step and fear the courts will intervene and gerrymanders will remain through 2030. Congress's right to regulate congressional elections is very explicit, and despite a conservative court is unlikely to be overturned. But the catch is that Congress only has the right to regulate federal elections not state elections. HR 1 is banking on the idea that states won't want to complicate voting to such a degree that they will have separate rules for state and federal elections. But I suspect that states intent on voter suppression like GA might instead use two ballots with stricter voting requirements for state and local elections.
I like the weekly chats. In re voter suppression measures, there are 12 states that have passed or are considering voter suppression laws, and that get 20% or more of their state budgets from federal aid. Therefore, as the President has the House, and the House has the purse strings, the President can talk to the Senators of these 12 states and remind them of their federal financial dependence, and urge them to vote for HR 1 in the Senate.
The GA law is an atrocity, and yet, somehow, still could have been worse. I do think it will depress 2022 turnout if it stands. Adding an entirely unnecessary ID requirement to absentee ballots is a serious blow after a million voters became exposed and accustomed to the process this past cycle.
That said, I'm still optimistic about HR 1. The people on the Hill advancing the bill were encouraged by Manchin's statement this week, and supposedly Sinema is on board as well. The other thing that's been significantly under-appreciated by the media is just how committed leadership is to passing this – and passing it as is without any significant modifications. Pelosi and Schumer have really championed this, and getting it done is a real priority for them.
So assuming it passes and Biden signs, just like GA's law, it heads to the courts. Initial Census numbers will be released in the summer, so states can begin to work on redistricting. However, I'm pretty skeptical about this step and fear the courts will intervene and gerrymanders will remain through 2030. Congress's right to regulate congressional elections is very explicit, and despite a conservative court is unlikely to be overturned. But the catch is that Congress only has the right to regulate federal elections not state elections. HR 1 is banking on the idea that states won't want to complicate voting to such a degree that they will have separate rules for state and federal elections. But I suspect that states intent on voter suppression like GA might instead use two ballots with stricter voting requirements for state and local elections.