One of the old paradoxes of philosophy is that studying the meaning of life exposes you to your own life’s lack of meaning. (I call this Schrödinger's life satisfaction, and it’s why I try not to read too much philosophy.) There is a similar dynamic with public opinion polling and electoral handicapping; studying it opens our eyes to problems we can’t really fix. Although engineers or city planners get to study construction and grand design that usually get to implement, I will probably never be able to change our Constitution and fix our two-party doom loop.
Anyway, I was reminded of this when I saw charts of the disconnect between the popularity of Joe Biden’s ambitious public spending plans — the American Rescue Plan, Jobs Plan and Family Plan—and his own personal approval ratings.
Here are the relevant data from this week’s Monmouth University poll:
Depending on the issue, Biden is underperforming his policies’ approval ratings by 14 to 20 points. We know social issues, as well as partisanship and the culture war, are three big reasons why; Republicans who approve of expanded child credits or expanded road spending in isolation might still vote against the only party that will give them those things because they have mismatched views on guns, or because they have heard bad things about Critical Race Theory or #Socialism.
I wish this weren’t the case; if we had a proportional electoral system, perhaps a Romneyite wing of the Republican Party would win more votes and control more of the party’s current Congressional caucus. More Americans would get the help they needed while still getting to voice their dissatisfaction with the woke left.
Though I can’t solve that problem or meaningfully affect its chances of being solved directly, I can point people to polls that push us in the right direction. Focusing on very popular pocketbook policy proposals is one way the Biden Administration can guard against the threats they face in other areas where voters trust Republicans more than them, such as on crime and immigration. Here’s a slide showing this that someone sent to me recently:
It turns out that people really trust the Democrats with their high public-spending agenda on the economy, health care, infrastructure and the environment. Republicans earn higher marks on taxes, crime, immigration and the military.
Over the past six months, I have noticed that Biden’s White House comms team has done a lot to highlight the Administration’s stances here to juice public support for big Congressional bills. In an electoral system that otherwise punishes the party that would deliver those things, the strategy is one I can get behind.
The Biden White House has emphasized their plans which the public supports to further their legislative goals. That's good for democracy.
Speaking of what's good for democracy, we need a proportional electoral system. I certainly believe a proportional electoral system would better represent the public. I don't understand why some people believe that the two party system will eventually end given the current level of partisanship and polarization.
This ascribing of values to Ds and Rs is not rational. Let's see whether Republicans are more responsive than Democrats to "Don't tax me." Turns out "don't tax me" comes from wealthy Democrats, suburbanites, businesses, poor people - everybody. Which party has been more responsive to that message? Both. But wait, we just said the public is in favor of the Democrats' high public spending agenda. So unwrap that, please? I want infrastructure, environment, etc. but tax somebody else? Crime - tough on crime seems to be a liability. https://theconversation.com/how-being-tough-on-crime-became-a-political-liability-128515. Immigration: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2021/06/07/poll-immigration-biden-trump-harris-mexico-. Military: unclear polling. So where do these perspectives come from? Do people pull them out of their fantasies?
Hi Elliott,
The Biden White House has emphasized their plans which the public supports to further their legislative goals. That's good for democracy.
Speaking of what's good for democracy, we need a proportional electoral system. I certainly believe a proportional electoral system would better represent the public. I don't understand why some people believe that the two party system will eventually end given the current level of partisanship and polarization.
I hope all is well!
Elliot
This ascribing of values to Ds and Rs is not rational. Let's see whether Republicans are more responsive than Democrats to "Don't tax me." Turns out "don't tax me" comes from wealthy Democrats, suburbanites, businesses, poor people - everybody. Which party has been more responsive to that message? Both. But wait, we just said the public is in favor of the Democrats' high public spending agenda. So unwrap that, please? I want infrastructure, environment, etc. but tax somebody else? Crime - tough on crime seems to be a liability. https://theconversation.com/how-being-tough-on-crime-became-a-political-liability-128515. Immigration: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2021/06/07/poll-immigration-biden-trump-harris-mexico-. Military: unclear polling. So where do these perspectives come from? Do people pull them out of their fantasies?