The right’s opinion leaders have evidently capitulated to the Democrats on spending issues, choosing instead to spend the vast majority of their time and media resources on Dr Seuss and Mr Potato Head. Given the polling on the just-passed covid-19 and economic aid bill, this is not surprising.
The question of what will be the animating conflict for the right over the next four years is still up in the air, though. It is not yet clear how much success Republicans will have with electoral campaigns almost universally focused on cancel culture and government obstruction.
I believe the Republican party faces three problems* that, at present, are all basically unsolved:
1) Because of strong institutional biases, the GOP can win lots of important elections without support from a majority of voters. This disincentivizes good governance (since you're governing for the minority) and also disincentivizes reform, since there's no need to change your platform if it'll already win you elections. Until their electoral incentives are no longer (so) distorted by institutional bias, the GOP is not salvageable.
2) GOP elites' longstanding and deepening ties to corrupt actors and institutions, including autocrats and crime syndicates in Russia and the Middle East, pervert its ability to act in the country's best interest. This was on display nearly every day of the Trump presidency, especially during the first impeachment trial and during Robert Mueller's successful prosecutions of George Papadopoulos, Roger Stone and Paul Manafort. But you can also see it in the overseas dark money donations to Trump acolytes and autocrat wannabes like Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz, and in the stalled or quashed investigations into people like Ivanka and Donald Trump, Jr., Rudy Giuliani, and, of course, Trump himself. The rot runs deep in many of America's most important law enforcement institutions, and while there are some Democrats who benefit from this corrosion, it mostly affects the Republican Party elite, some of whom are criminal, some of whom aid and abet those criminals, and some of whom are simply too cowardly to fight the rot. Until this institutional corruption is exposed, and its bad actors prosecuted, the GOP is not salvageable.
3) White Christian nationalism is the third leg of this shitty step stool of bad governance. It is has been a strain of dogma in American politics for centuries, but it is particularly dangerous today, because its followers a) are decreasing in number and, as a consequence, b) are becoming more outraged and overt in their beliefs. These people are an increasingly destabilizing force on the country (see: 1/6), but the Republican Party needs these voters, because in most states, the party's politicians can't win important elections without them. So the party is forced to convince these voters that they are the only thing standing between America and Armageddon, which further agitates them and increases the chances of armed insurrection. Until these Americans are talked off the ledge, so to speak, the Republican Party is not salvageable.
So, what to do about all of this?
Solving 1) might be the easiest lift. Adding new states, outlawing gerrymandering and instituting multi-member Congressional Districts could eliminate much of the disconnect between the GOP's platform and its electoral results. Congress can do all of this with simple Democratic majorities, provided they eliminate the Filibuster. The Senate itself is a bigger and less solvable problem, but that fix might take decades or centuries, as it will require a new Amendment to the Constitution. In any case, just doing the above stuff would be a big step forward.
Solving 2) doesn't require changing the Constitution, but it does require a government staffed top to bottom with people who are charged with, and care about, rooting out corruption. Basically, we need a whole Federal government's worth of Eliot Nesses. Is Joe Biden the guy to oversee this radical transparency? I kind of doubt it. But perhaps Merrick Garland is? In any case, we'll know whether or not this problem is actively being solved over the next few years, as we find out how many (if any) of these criminals are finally held to account for their crimes.
Solving 3) is the hardest of these. We had a whole Civil War about this shit, and that didn't really solve the problem. If anyone has some good ideas here, I'd love to hear them.
Anyway, my belief is that what our country will look like five, ten or twenty years from now is largely based on how well we solve these issues. If we do everything we can, really give it our all, to deal with this stuff, I believe we'll weather this storm and emerge stronger for it. If not, I think a further slide into autocracy is inevitable, and that armed violence by White Christian nationalists is quite likely.
Josh
*Defining problem here as a problem for the country, not necessarily a problem for the party or some of its members/leader
The Republican Party's platform over the last four years has been Trump is awesome. They don't really have a platform. Right now, the Republican Party is Trump's party. Without Trump on the ballot, will the Republican Party be successful? I think the midterms will give an indication of what is next for the Republican Party. My guess is that Republicans go after Harris, Pelosi, Schumer and other Democrats in Congress. They will use the Obama era strategy of obstructing everything. The first midterm election is typically bad for the President's party. My assumption is that Republicans win back the House and perhaps the Senate in 2022. That may not be a good assumption. Maybe it's not clear what is next for the Republican Party?
Pull quote:" Top GOP donors have distanced themselves from the Republicans who pushed to overturn the election results. Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, the No. 3 donor to GOP objectors and the No. 8 overall donor in the 2020 election cycle, said Wednesday he was “shocked and horrified by this mob’s attempt to undermine our constitution.”
"However, few top donors have committed to backing away from Trump and his congressional allies. Many billionaire donors who bankrolled Trump and GOP lawmakers have gone largely quiet."
My forecast: Mitch McConnell will announce his retirement. The Kentucky legislature is already producing legislation forbidding the Democratic Governor from appointing McConnell's successor. GOP governors and state houses are producing coordinated voter suppression legislation that will be overturned before 2022 by the SCOTUS. Stacey Abrams and her Georgia organization again are in the crosshairs, her life is probably in more danger than it ever was, and organizing Georgia is again critical. The nation is moving away from the GOP religious fundamentalist guns, god, and greed credo. They're pissing into the wind. In 2022 Ohio will go Democratic. Everybody should keep an eye on union, labor, working class hero Senator Sherrod Brown. His time is coming soon. Keep on eye on SCOTUS cases involving gerrymandering. Because international law is becoming increasingly important, the GOP is becoming vanishingly useful to banking, trade, commerce, and the people.
Bottom line: By the end of 2022, we will see the resurgence of the Yankee conservative GOP, as opposed to the trump GOP.
Continued dysfunction. They are so far down the track of aggrieved white injustice as to impossible to reverse. I see increasing irrelevance especially in national elections.
I believe the Republican party faces three problems* that, at present, are all basically unsolved:
1) Because of strong institutional biases, the GOP can win lots of important elections without support from a majority of voters. This disincentivizes good governance (since you're governing for the minority) and also disincentivizes reform, since there's no need to change your platform if it'll already win you elections. Until their electoral incentives are no longer (so) distorted by institutional bias, the GOP is not salvageable.
2) GOP elites' longstanding and deepening ties to corrupt actors and institutions, including autocrats and crime syndicates in Russia and the Middle East, pervert its ability to act in the country's best interest. This was on display nearly every day of the Trump presidency, especially during the first impeachment trial and during Robert Mueller's successful prosecutions of George Papadopoulos, Roger Stone and Paul Manafort. But you can also see it in the overseas dark money donations to Trump acolytes and autocrat wannabes like Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz, and in the stalled or quashed investigations into people like Ivanka and Donald Trump, Jr., Rudy Giuliani, and, of course, Trump himself. The rot runs deep in many of America's most important law enforcement institutions, and while there are some Democrats who benefit from this corrosion, it mostly affects the Republican Party elite, some of whom are criminal, some of whom aid and abet those criminals, and some of whom are simply too cowardly to fight the rot. Until this institutional corruption is exposed, and its bad actors prosecuted, the GOP is not salvageable.
3) White Christian nationalism is the third leg of this shitty step stool of bad governance. It is has been a strain of dogma in American politics for centuries, but it is particularly dangerous today, because its followers a) are decreasing in number and, as a consequence, b) are becoming more outraged and overt in their beliefs. These people are an increasingly destabilizing force on the country (see: 1/6), but the Republican Party needs these voters, because in most states, the party's politicians can't win important elections without them. So the party is forced to convince these voters that they are the only thing standing between America and Armageddon, which further agitates them and increases the chances of armed insurrection. Until these Americans are talked off the ledge, so to speak, the Republican Party is not salvageable.
So, what to do about all of this?
Solving 1) might be the easiest lift. Adding new states, outlawing gerrymandering and instituting multi-member Congressional Districts could eliminate much of the disconnect between the GOP's platform and its electoral results. Congress can do all of this with simple Democratic majorities, provided they eliminate the Filibuster. The Senate itself is a bigger and less solvable problem, but that fix might take decades or centuries, as it will require a new Amendment to the Constitution. In any case, just doing the above stuff would be a big step forward.
Solving 2) doesn't require changing the Constitution, but it does require a government staffed top to bottom with people who are charged with, and care about, rooting out corruption. Basically, we need a whole Federal government's worth of Eliot Nesses. Is Joe Biden the guy to oversee this radical transparency? I kind of doubt it. But perhaps Merrick Garland is? In any case, we'll know whether or not this problem is actively being solved over the next few years, as we find out how many (if any) of these criminals are finally held to account for their crimes.
Solving 3) is the hardest of these. We had a whole Civil War about this shit, and that didn't really solve the problem. If anyone has some good ideas here, I'd love to hear them.
Anyway, my belief is that what our country will look like five, ten or twenty years from now is largely based on how well we solve these issues. If we do everything we can, really give it our all, to deal with this stuff, I believe we'll weather this storm and emerge stronger for it. If not, I think a further slide into autocracy is inevitable, and that armed violence by White Christian nationalists is quite likely.
Josh
*Defining problem here as a problem for the country, not necessarily a problem for the party or some of its members/leader
Is the Republican Party Destroying Itself?
by Thomas E. Patterson
Hi Elliott,
The Republican Party's platform over the last four years has been Trump is awesome. They don't really have a platform. Right now, the Republican Party is Trump's party. Without Trump on the ballot, will the Republican Party be successful? I think the midterms will give an indication of what is next for the Republican Party. My guess is that Republicans go after Harris, Pelosi, Schumer and other Democrats in Congress. They will use the Obama era strategy of obstructing everything. The first midterm election is typically bad for the President's party. My assumption is that Republicans win back the House and perhaps the Senate in 2022. That may not be a good assumption. Maybe it's not clear what is next for the Republican Party?
-Elliot
Let's look at recent history for auguries of the GOP. What do we see when we look at the donors?
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/01/objectors-to-electoralcollege-donors/
Pull quote:" Top GOP donors have distanced themselves from the Republicans who pushed to overturn the election results. Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, the No. 3 donor to GOP objectors and the No. 8 overall donor in the 2020 election cycle, said Wednesday he was “shocked and horrified by this mob’s attempt to undermine our constitution.”
"However, few top donors have committed to backing away from Trump and his congressional allies. Many billionaire donors who bankrolled Trump and GOP lawmakers have gone largely quiet."
My forecast: Mitch McConnell will announce his retirement. The Kentucky legislature is already producing legislation forbidding the Democratic Governor from appointing McConnell's successor. GOP governors and state houses are producing coordinated voter suppression legislation that will be overturned before 2022 by the SCOTUS. Stacey Abrams and her Georgia organization again are in the crosshairs, her life is probably in more danger than it ever was, and organizing Georgia is again critical. The nation is moving away from the GOP religious fundamentalist guns, god, and greed credo. They're pissing into the wind. In 2022 Ohio will go Democratic. Everybody should keep an eye on union, labor, working class hero Senator Sherrod Brown. His time is coming soon. Keep on eye on SCOTUS cases involving gerrymandering. Because international law is becoming increasingly important, the GOP is becoming vanishingly useful to banking, trade, commerce, and the people.
Bottom line: By the end of 2022, we will see the resurgence of the Yankee conservative GOP, as opposed to the trump GOP.
Continued dysfunction. They are so far down the track of aggrieved white injustice as to impossible to reverse. I see increasing irrelevance especially in national elections.