Sitemap - 2022 - Elliott’s notebook

A break for the holidays

A slim Republican House vote, what it means to be a "moderate," and the church class divide | Links for December 11-17, 2022

What does artificial intelligence know about polling? | #208 - December 11, 2022

Midterms, gerrymandering, and Republican turnout | Links for December 4-10, 2022

The 1936 Literary Digest poll was off by 38 percentage points

The (good) pollsters got the midterms right

Three articles about the polls to read before Tuesday | Links for October 30-November 5, 2022

The gory details about how modern polling really works | #207 - October 23, 2022

How much polling bias could Senate Democrats overcome? | Saturday thread for October 16-22, 2022

The polling website where Republicans are winning in a landslide | #206 - October 9, 2022

How to read the polls like a nerd | #205 - October 2, 2022

The House tipping point | Saturday thread for September 18-24, 2022

How to tell a good poll from a bad one | Saturday thread for September 11-17, 2022

How to think about bias in the polls this year | Saturday thread for September 4-10, 2022

Why Democrats' poll numbers are really rising | Saturday subscribers-only thread for August 28-September 3, 2022

Saturday thread for August 14-20, 2022: Can Democrats defy midterms gravity?

Midterms notepad | #204 – August 7, 2022

The Latino shift to Republicans is real, but it's (mostly) not about whether someone has a degree | #203 – July 24, 2022

Saturday thread for July 17-23, 2022: Why are young Democrats so down on Biden?

Polling and path dependency | #202 – July 17, 2022

Now out! My book STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them

The Supreme Court's Dobbs decision may have given the Democrats a boost for the midterms | #201– July 10, 2022

Q&A #2: Multiparty democracy, candidate quality in Senate elections, and Constitutional amendments

America is not its minority | #200 – July 3, 2022

Saturday thread for June 26-July 2, 2022: Some sources of hope for Democrats emerge

An analysis claiming one million voters switched to the GOP last year was fatally flawed

Saturday thread for June 19-25, 2022: Why the Supreme Court needs democratic legitimacy

Saturday thread for June 12-18, 2022: January 6 and voter psychology

Q&A #1: Presidential primaries, polling and forecasting, and inflation and the midterms

January 6th: past and prologue | #199 – June 12, 2022

Announcing a regular Q&A/AMA feature

The price we pay for minority rule | #198 – May 29, 2022

Saturday thread for May 22-28, 2022: Mass shootings and gun control

People are saying some nice things about STRENGTH IN NUMBERS

What will Republicans take home from CPAC in Hungary? | #197 – May 22, 2022

Saturday thread for May 15-21, 2022: Republican primaries, polling after 2020 and "states' rights" to ban abortion

A Republican candidate for governor of Colorado wants to be elected via a statewide electoral college

How white racism and anti-democracy elite rhetoric create the conditions for right-wing violence | #196 – May 15, 2022

Saturday post on “Public Opinion” in MODERN DEMOCRACIES (by James Bryce)

Roe v Wade and the end of majority rule in America | #195 – May 8, 2022

What the polls actually say about Americans' attitudes on abortion

May Day thoughts: The struggle to create a new working-class left | #194 – May 1, 2022

Saturday subscribers-only thread on opinion polling in a polarized era

The Democratic Party needs to think beyond just passing big policies if it wants to win in 2024 | #193 – April 24, 2022

Saturday subscribers-only thread: Americans would feel better represented with multiple political parties

Can Democrats avoid a looming electoral disaster? | #192 – April 17, 2022

Saturday subscribers-only thread: The vanishing link between Joe Biden's job approval and new covid-19 cases

What if people who watch Fox News watched CNN instead? | No. 191 – April 10, 2022

Saturday subscribers-only post: Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, and the future of the global "Brahmin left"

It has been over a year since the US State Department said they would answer my FOIA request on fake opinion polls in Iraq

How public opinion polls shape Supreme Court decisions

How will American democracy survive? | No. 188 – March 20, 2022

Saturday subscribers-only thread: What the Russia-Ukraine crisis reveals about America's national identity (or lack thereof)

Why most polls on a no-fly zone over Ukraine are a no-go (so far) | No. 187 – March 13, 2022

New US Congressional maps are the fairest in a decade — but not quite as fair as people want you to believe

Do 68% of Russians really support the invasion of Ukraine? | No. 186 – March 6, 2022

Is Joe Biden's bounce in approval ratings from Ukraine or his State of the Union address?

Vladimir Putin, Russia, and public opinion in times of war | No. 185 – February 27, 2022

Saturday subscribers-only thread: Two stories on polls and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The Trump effect on Americans' attitudes towards Vladimir Putin has mostly worn off

The 2022 midterms were decided on November 3, 2020 | No. 184 – February 20, 2022

The Canadian trucker protests show the importance of public opinion polling to the democratic process

Employment data come from surveys!

The 2022 US House maps are set to be the least competitive in a century

Why neither covid-19 nor the assault on US democracy has sparked national unity or institutional change | No. 181 — January 30, 2022

Saturday subscribers-only thread on filibuster polling and starting a weekly Q&A thread…

The problem with the Electoral College is not partisanship or urban-rural polarization

Appendix to article on polarization and presidential approval calculations

Is Joe Biden actually that unpopular, or is polarization distorting his approval rating? | No. 180 — January 23, 2022

Who to blame for Joe Biden's low approval ratings

Saturday subscribers-only thread: The White House really wants you to know Joe Biden’s approval is 43% and not 33%

The leader versus follower debate in an age of democratic decline | No. 178 — January 9, 2022

The problem at the heart of January 6th — and the future of American democracy

The good news about Omicron | No. 177 — January 2, 2022

Saturday thread on new insurrection polling at the anniversary of the January 6th riot