Sitemap - 2022 - Elliott’s notebook
What does artificial intelligence know about polling? | #208 - December 11, 2022
Midterms, gerrymandering, and Republican turnout | Links for December 4-10, 2022
The 1936 Literary Digest poll was off by 38 percentage points
The (good) pollsters got the midterms right
Three articles about the polls to read before Tuesday | Links for October 30-November 5, 2022
The gory details about how modern polling really works | #207 - October 23, 2022
How much polling bias could Senate Democrats overcome? | Saturday thread for October 16-22, 2022
The polling website where Republicans are winning in a landslide | #206 - October 9, 2022
How to read the polls like a nerd | #205 - October 2, 2022
The House tipping point | Saturday thread for September 18-24, 2022
How to tell a good poll from a bad one | Saturday thread for September 11-17, 2022
How to think about bias in the polls this year | Saturday thread for September 4-10, 2022
Saturday thread for August 14-20, 2022: Can Democrats defy midterms gravity?
Midterms notepad | #204 – August 7, 2022
Saturday thread for July 17-23, 2022: Why are young Democrats so down on Biden?
Polling and path dependency | #202 – July 17, 2022
Now out! My book STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them
Q&A #2: Multiparty democracy, candidate quality in Senate elections, and Constitutional amendments
America is not its minority | #200 – July 3, 2022
Saturday thread for June 26-July 2, 2022: Some sources of hope for Democrats emerge
An analysis claiming one million voters switched to the GOP last year was fatally flawed
Saturday thread for June 19-25, 2022: Why the Supreme Court needs democratic legitimacy
Saturday thread for June 12-18, 2022: January 6 and voter psychology
Q&A #1: Presidential primaries, polling and forecasting, and inflation and the midterms
January 6th: past and prologue | #199 – June 12, 2022
Announcing a regular Q&A/AMA feature
The price we pay for minority rule | #198 – May 29, 2022
Saturday thread for May 22-28, 2022: Mass shootings and gun control
People are saying some nice things about STRENGTH IN NUMBERS
What will Republicans take home from CPAC in Hungary? | #197 – May 22, 2022
Saturday post on “Public Opinion” in MODERN DEMOCRACIES (by James Bryce)
Roe v Wade and the end of majority rule in America | #195 – May 8, 2022
What the polls actually say about Americans' attitudes on abortion
May Day thoughts: The struggle to create a new working-class left | #194 – May 1, 2022
Saturday subscribers-only thread on opinion polling in a polarized era
Can Democrats avoid a looming electoral disaster? | #192 – April 17, 2022
What if people who watch Fox News watched CNN instead? | No. 191 – April 10, 2022
How public opinion polls shape Supreme Court decisions
How will American democracy survive? | No. 188 – March 20, 2022
Why most polls on a no-fly zone over Ukraine are a no-go (so far) | No. 187 – March 13, 2022
Do 68% of Russians really support the invasion of Ukraine? | No. 186 – March 6, 2022
Is Joe Biden's bounce in approval ratings from Ukraine or his State of the Union address?
Vladimir Putin, Russia, and public opinion in times of war | No. 185 – February 27, 2022
Saturday subscribers-only thread: Two stories on polls and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The Trump effect on Americans' attitudes towards Vladimir Putin has mostly worn off
The 2022 midterms were decided on November 3, 2020 | No. 184 – February 20, 2022
Employment data come from surveys!
The 2022 US House maps are set to be the least competitive in a century
Saturday subscribers-only thread on filibuster polling and starting a weekly Q&A thread…
The problem with the Electoral College is not partisanship or urban-rural polarization
Appendix to article on polarization and presidential approval calculations
Who to blame for Joe Biden's low approval ratings
The leader versus follower debate in an age of democratic decline | No. 178 — January 9, 2022
The problem at the heart of January 6th — and the future of American democracy
The good news about Omicron | No. 177 — January 2, 2022
Saturday thread on new insurrection polling at the anniversary of the January 6th riot