The biggest political news this week is about the House January 6 committee’s ongoing public hearings about the 2021 attack on Congress. While the committee has uncovered some damning testimony, I am focused instead on the scope for future violence and successful insurrection. My read of the data is that we are collectively no further from the relatively high probability of an overthrown election than we were on January 7th, 2021. In fact, in some ways, we appear even closer.
I have been thinking in particular about how our electoral systems and political institutions magnify the risks of coordinated partisan violence and authoritarian politics, which we saw on display on January 6th. A two-party political system and partisan control over election officials seem to combine to produce the biggest risks. The former sets the stage for zero-sum politics and exacerbates tensions between parties; the latter allows officials, once committed to lies about an election or the belief that opposition victories are inherently illegitimate, to override the will of the people.
A few articles this week highlight where we stand in this moment.
The New York Timesreports on the many election officials and political candidates who are committed to Trump’s big lie — which, the House committee revealed this week, he knowingly manufactured to hold onto power.
FiveThirtyEight has also started counting the election deniers running for office, charting how successful they have been in their primaries.
Of particular note is a Republican candidate to be Michigan’s governor named Ryan Kelley, who was recently arrested by the FBI for his suspected personal involvement in the insurrection at the Capitol. Yet according to polling by the Detroit Free Press, he “appears to have boosted his name recognition and favorability among GOP voters in Michigan, new polling conducted in the days following his arrest indicates.” Their poll puts him in first for the state’s Republican primary, though there is a long time before voters will cast their ballots.
There is real support for candidates like Kelley across the country. According to a compilation of polling by Politifact, roughly 70% of Republicans believe Joe Biden’s win in 2020 was illegitimate — that he did not fairly win the election.
This week, Republican election commissioners in a New Mexico country repeatedly refused to certify the results of the primary elections there. Two of the officials on the board claimed they thought there could have been fraud. When one was asked to provide evidence, he said he had none: “My vote to remain a no isn’t based on any evidence, it’s not based on any facts, it’s only based on my gut feeling and my own intuition, and that’s all I need.” The commission eventually reneged and voted 2-1 to certify the election. That was a good ending to a situation that came dangerously close to legally sanctioned election denial; the events show how this process could eventually play out on a national scale in a “contested” election.
Yet there is good news. A poll from Navigator research finds the majority of the public supports the January 6 committee, and the vast majority view the people convicted for violently entering the Capitol that day unfavorably.
And many major newsrooms also now seem to be taking the partisan threats to the system seriously, this report finds.
Yet at the end of the day, there are currently enough sympathizers with Trump’s lie (elected and unelected) to provide a pronounced risk to US democracy. Even conditioning on a safe transfer of power, the pronounced partisan erosion in our commitment to democratic principles is a frightening development of recent history. Little is being done to ensure officials cannot abuse their power for partisan means. The guardrails for our democracy, in other words, do not currently appear substantial enough to match the threat.
I’m wondering if you may be being a little too pessimistic about the guardrails of democracy. It’s one thing to publicly set-up the mechanics of stealing elections. It’s totally another thing to try to carry that out -- just like it’s one thing to eliminate a Constitutional right to abortion but totally another for states to carry-out a complete ban that lets women die in public or be arrested post-abortion, or to have doctors and nurses taken off in handcuffs for following their Hypocratic Oaths.
I think it’s actually more likely than not that the right wing and the Christofascists are going to discover not only that trying to remove guardrails is harder than they thought (and many are still there), but that their reckless careening down these pathways is going to end badly for them. The vast majority of Americans are nothing if not pragmatic and middle-of-the-road and are not going to stand for outright corruption, disenfranchisement, and brutality to women. I think we will find that the equation will be -changin’ as soon as the implementation of these extreme measures and plans becomes manifest.
I agree with your assessment, Elliott. It all boils down to who counts the votes. And what other nation you plan to move to.
In re why do people believe lies? People choose a good or useful story over facts, even when the facts demonstrate that the story is false and the facts are repeated ad nauseum. The only thing that can overturn a false (or true) story is another story. With a different hero. Effective stories tend to possess a number of common elements. They are easy to understand They can be briefly summarized and quickly memorized They are internally consistent. They concern particular characters or groups. There is a direct connection between cause and effect. They describe progress from a beginning through a middle to an end. The end resolves the situation encountered at the beginning with a conclusion that is positive and inspiring. Certain stories are repeated through history and across cultures. Hero setting out on a quest, encountering great hazard, conquering it despite overwhelming odds, thus gaining power, prestige, insight. This story goes across cultures and time. In politics, the recurring story goes “Disorder afflicts the land, caused by powerful and nefarious forces working against the interests of humanity. The hero – who might be one person or a group of people – revolts against the disorder, fights the nefarious forces, overcomes them despite great odds, and restores order.” Stories that follow this pattern can sweep all before them, even our fundamental values. See, for example, Lord of the Rings, Narnia, Lion King. These are medieval autocrats for whom we cheer, even though we don’t approve autocrats and autocracy. Story conquered values. The only thing that can overcome a Story is Another Story with Another Hero. The January 6 Committee is creating the Other Story with Another Hero.
I’m wondering if you may be being a little too pessimistic about the guardrails of democracy. It’s one thing to publicly set-up the mechanics of stealing elections. It’s totally another thing to try to carry that out -- just like it’s one thing to eliminate a Constitutional right to abortion but totally another for states to carry-out a complete ban that lets women die in public or be arrested post-abortion, or to have doctors and nurses taken off in handcuffs for following their Hypocratic Oaths.
I think it’s actually more likely than not that the right wing and the Christofascists are going to discover not only that trying to remove guardrails is harder than they thought (and many are still there), but that their reckless careening down these pathways is going to end badly for them. The vast majority of Americans are nothing if not pragmatic and middle-of-the-road and are not going to stand for outright corruption, disenfranchisement, and brutality to women. I think we will find that the equation will be -changin’ as soon as the implementation of these extreme measures and plans becomes manifest.
I agree with your assessment, Elliott. It all boils down to who counts the votes. And what other nation you plan to move to.
In re why do people believe lies? People choose a good or useful story over facts, even when the facts demonstrate that the story is false and the facts are repeated ad nauseum. The only thing that can overturn a false (or true) story is another story. With a different hero. Effective stories tend to possess a number of common elements. They are easy to understand They can be briefly summarized and quickly memorized They are internally consistent. They concern particular characters or groups. There is a direct connection between cause and effect. They describe progress from a beginning through a middle to an end. The end resolves the situation encountered at the beginning with a conclusion that is positive and inspiring. Certain stories are repeated through history and across cultures. Hero setting out on a quest, encountering great hazard, conquering it despite overwhelming odds, thus gaining power, prestige, insight. This story goes across cultures and time. In politics, the recurring story goes “Disorder afflicts the land, caused by powerful and nefarious forces working against the interests of humanity. The hero – who might be one person or a group of people – revolts against the disorder, fights the nefarious forces, overcomes them despite great odds, and restores order.” Stories that follow this pattern can sweep all before them, even our fundamental values. See, for example, Lord of the Rings, Narnia, Lion King. These are medieval autocrats for whom we cheer, even though we don’t approve autocrats and autocracy. Story conquered values. The only thing that can overcome a Story is Another Story with Another Hero. The January 6 Committee is creating the Other Story with Another Hero.