Saturday thread for July 17-23, 2022: Why are young Democrats so down on Biden?

Here is a passage from a recent article about the New York Times/Siena College poll published earlier this month:

A survey from The New York Times and Siena College found that just 1 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds strongly approve of the way Mr. Biden is handling his job. And 94 percent of Democrats under 30 said they wanted another candidate to run two years from now. Of all age groups, young voters were most likely to say they wouldn’t vote for either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump in a hypothetical 2024 rematch.

… only 32 percent [are] saying they are “almost certain” to vote in November, according to the poll. Nearly half said they did not think their vote made a difference.

This is a huge problem for the party. While 62% of voters under 30 cast ballot for Biden in 2020, according to an analysis by Catalist, a political data firm, only 19% approve of the president overall (with the aforementioned 1% strong disapproval) in the new Times poll. And while I think that is an underestimate of his true rating among young people — YouGov, for example, has Biden at 38% with young adults — even that is alarmingly low.

But why are voters upset with Biden? Here are a few explanations:

1. Young Democrats are less partisan than older Democrats. A recent Economist/YouGov poll finds that 67% of Democrats over the age of 64 calls themselves “strong” Democrats, but only 38% of those under 30 say the same. The younger group is much likelier to refer to themselves as “not very strong” Democrats — about 36% of the sample, per The Economist. And they are the likeliest group to call themselves Independents who only lean toward Democrats. “Given that partisanship correlates with loyalty to Mr Biden,” The Economist writes, “younger voters are naturally more likely to think poorly of the president.”

2. Younger voters are also generally dissatisfied with American politics and the electoral system. In-depth interviews by the Times with some of their respondents found young voters in 2020 were not enthusiastic about voting for Biden (we knew this already) and instead voted against Trump. Some things worth mentioning:

   1. For example, per the Times: “Alexandra Chadwick went to the polls in 2020 with the single goal of ousting Donald J. Trump. A 22-year-old first-time voter, she saw Joseph R. Biden Jr. as more of a safeguard than an inspiring political figure, someone who could stave off threats to abortion access, gun control and climate policy.”
      ”Two years later, as the Supreme Court has eroded federal protections on all three, Ms. Chadwick now sees President Biden and other Democratic leaders as lacking both the imagination and willpower to fight back. She points to a generational gap — one she once overlooked but now seems cavernous.”

      “‘How are you going to accurately lead your country if your mind is still stuck 50, 60 or 70 years ago?’ Ms. Chadwick, a customer service representative in Rialto, Calif., said of the many septuagenarian leaders at the helm of her party. ‘It’s not the same, and people aren’t the same, and your old ideas aren’t going to work as well anymore.’”

3. Young Democrats are also particularly likely to say that Biden’s age and job performance are big drawbacks — and that they would overwhelmingly prefer a different nominee in 2024. They are also more progressive than other groups, which was the fourth-commonest reason Democrats gave for wanting a Democrat to run next year.

That’s it for links. But there is another thing, which is hard to quantify, that could be driving Biden down with young voters. And that is vibes. The young people I talk to (NB: not necessarily a representative sample) feel that Biden is not only old, but out of touch with both their needs and the needs of the country more broadly. And they tell me — much like Alexandra Chadwick told the Times above — that he is not up to the task of beating Republicans in the ongoing fight for fundamental rights and the future of democracy.

Finally, there is a more mundane explanation. The economy is currently bad (especially if you only look at inflation in prices) and potentially even in recession (we get new GDP numbers on Thursday). The Democrats have not accomplished much of what Biden promised to push through Congress (thanks in large part, but not entirely, to Joe Manchin’s stonewalling) and that reflects badly on the president.

In response, some might change is slow and incremental, politics is hard, and the alternative is worse than the status quoe. Those are all true. But they are also not very inspiring — to anyone, but evidently, especially to young people.