5 Comments

I conditionally approve of this approach!

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I really like your conditional approach to polling forecasts. I find that the conventional approach has an air of fake precision. The conditional approach is much clearer.

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There appear to be many new voters, especially young and women. Are they represented in these polls?

I'm thinking about what happened in Kansas.

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I have seen a trend in the polling data (maybe it's my imagination) ...Biden's poll numbers are slightly better when likely voters are sampled...Many polls on his approval have been based on A or RV voters...It's probably nothing...

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It seems clear that the GOP has positioned its minions to prevent people from going to the polls by making the polling places hard to reach and few and far between; to harass and intimidate voters at the polls, to claim victory or fraud prior to final vote count, to have secretaries of state stop the vote count, to file more litigation demanding that the governor alone has the authority to name state winners, to interfere with vote counting, etc. You can't poll on the probabilities of those outcomes. As Stalin didn't say, it doesn't matter who votes, it matters who counts the votes. Or says s/he counts the votes.

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