Sitemap - 2023 - Elliott’s notebook

The real "crisis" in polling

Is it too early for 2024 polls to be predictive?

How to read outlier polls

A new framework for media polling analysis

Polling and forecasting in 2024 and beyond | #215 - May 14, 2023

What's next for data-driven election journalism? | #214 - April 25, 2023

Artificial intelligence and "big data" cannot replace public opinion polls | #213 - April 10, 2023

At this point in 2007, Rudy Giuliani was the front-runner for the GOP nomination | #212 - March 26, 2023

Links for March 12-18, 2023 | A Trump indictment; The GOP against Ukraine; Fox's Arizona 2020 call; and Rasmussen is at it again

Republican opposition to Trump is a classic coordination problem | #211 - March 19, 2023

Links for March 5-11, 2023 | Regulating drug prices; Rating pollsters; And what campaign lawn signs tell us

Links for February 26-March 4, 2023 | Predicting primaries; "Wokeism" and depression?; And new evidence of voter rationality

Why you should ignore partisan pollsters | #210 - February 26, 2023

Links for February 19-25, 2023 | Americans in most states support legal abortions; New graphs for showing polling uncertainty at PBS; And evidence of economic voting from the 1790s

Presidents' Day Links | February 12-18, 2023 | Asymmetric polarization; "Rich Democrats, Poor Republicans"; and Dissatisfaction with gun, abortion, family policies

Donald Trump did not win in 2016 because the establishment "split the field" | #209 - February 15, 2023

Links for January 22-28, 2023 | The research on achieving racial justice; The debt ceiling debate; and Who cares about the House Speaker, anyway?

Links for January 15-21, 2023 | "Zero-sum" politics; new evidence on digital ads; drinking and democracy; and how not to write a poll question

Links for January 8-14, 2023 | The C-SPAN effect; "socially liberal but fiscally conservative"; religious social sorting; and the happiest jobs in America

Links for January 1-7, 2023 | Polarization in the US House; The "chaos caucus"; Midterm backlashes; And a belated Happy New Year

Kevin McCarthy's flailing bid for Speaker of the House is not (only) about ideological differences

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