Democracy by the Numbers

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The House tipping point | Saturday thread for September 18-24, 2022For a brief hour yesterday afternoon, FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate of House “generic ballot” polls showed the Democrats beating the Republicans b…
G. Elliott Morris
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How to tell a good poll from a bad one | Saturday thread for September 11-17, 2022Let’s talk briefly today about pollster quality. Whether or not a poll is conducted properly is, technically, a matter of analyzing a set of spe…
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How to think about bias in the polls this year | Saturday thread for September 4-10, 2022Dear subscribers, This week marked the federal Labor Day holiday in the US, and with it the unofficial start to campaign season—when polls are s…
G. Elliott Morris
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Why Democrats' poll numbers are really rising | Saturday subscribers-only thread for August 28-September 3, 2022Dear subscribers, I do not like to do a lot of tweet myth-busting a lot for this newsletter, but something this week warrants it. Will Stancil, …
G. Elliott Morris
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Saturday thread for August 14-20, 2022: Can Democrats defy midterms gravity?Dear subscribers, One constant feature of political analysis is the tendency for both pundits and prognosticators to overstate changes in the po…
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Kansas, cross-pressured voters, and the changing* political environment
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Thoughts on "education polarization" and a new study claiming Hispanics did not move right at all from 2016 to 2020
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Here is a passage from a recent article about the New York Times/Siena College poll published earlier this month: A survey from The New York Times and…
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Thank you all for making pub week for Strength in Numbers a success
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A one-of-a-kind book about the history of polling, THE mechanics of modern surveys, and role of polls in our democracy
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Polls of the US House race have moved 1-2 points toward the Democrats over the last month. But surveys are noisy, and Democrats may be more responsive…
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With additional posts on the Supreme Court and Australian elections
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