A new study of polls on hundreds of state ballot initiatives reveals no bias towards liberals or conservatives, but rather a consistent underestimation of the status quo
I'm interested in how campaign dynamics might apply here. Economic issues (labor, unions, minimum wage) show the least relation between opinion and vote; these are the issues where we would expect the greatest amount of self-interested campaign expenditure. Seemingly one-sided issues lose support when opposition shows up, as it does during an election campaign. These suggest that, without the anchor of political party, initiative campaigns can be influential
Douglas: Absolutely they can. This is one reason why there is a larger error term in predicting initiative results than, say, presidential elections — and also why they aren’t a perfect measure of polling accuracy. In the latter, the party heuristic generally means you know what you’re going to get, and far ahead of Election Day.
I'm interested in how campaign dynamics might apply here. Economic issues (labor, unions, minimum wage) show the least relation between opinion and vote; these are the issues where we would expect the greatest amount of self-interested campaign expenditure. Seemingly one-sided issues lose support when opposition shows up, as it does during an election campaign. These suggest that, without the anchor of political party, initiative campaigns can be influential
Douglas: Absolutely they can. This is one reason why there is a larger error term in predicting initiative results than, say, presidential elections — and also why they aren’t a perfect measure of polling accuracy. In the latter, the party heuristic generally means you know what you’re going to get, and far ahead of Election Day.