This seems like a good post for this question, but how much can you factor in errors related to demographic change since the last actual census?
I know that the census has yearly estimates but do particularly dynamic or fast-growing states such as Texas or Florida have extra error assumed in their polls?
While the map should speak for itself, I still wonder about the implicit conclusions about TX, GA, IA and OH. Biden has a better chance in these three states than he has in OH, or at least measurable enough that the shading is different on the map? The first three have moved left in the last 4 years while with Ohio, not so much?
I'm curious as to your take on the perennial favorites 🙄 Fla. and Pa. Do you see Pa. tightening to a level dangerous for Biden? What about people of color in both states, turnout-wise? Thanks.
This seems like a good post for this question, but how much can you factor in errors related to demographic change since the last actual census?
I know that the census has yearly estimates but do particularly dynamic or fast-growing states such as Texas or Florida have extra error assumed in their polls?
While the map should speak for itself, I still wonder about the implicit conclusions about TX, GA, IA and OH. Biden has a better chance in these three states than he has in OH, or at least measurable enough that the shading is different on the map? The first three have moved left in the last 4 years while with Ohio, not so much?
Phew! I am so glad you say so. Thanks so for your insightful findings with translations for the laymen. Aloha!
I'm curious as to your take on the perennial favorites 🙄 Fla. and Pa. Do you see Pa. tightening to a level dangerous for Biden? What about people of color in both states, turnout-wise? Thanks.