It is possible that, at early election stages, some voters are willing to offer preferences among a few candidates but shy away from choices among a large number of candidates. In the past, it has been possible to assemble a ranking from a series of limited contests.

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My take on a 2024 replay of the 2016 Republican nomination contest would have DeSantis winning. In 2016, as the contest winnowed out candidates without a base, Trump faced candidates who he could defeat one-on-one, Cruz and Kasich. In the pre-2024 multicandidate polls you list, DeSantis would always survive that winnowing, ending up facing Trump alone, a contest he wins.

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None of this sounds like meaningful ways to spend one's life. What a shame. Meanwhile, the ice is melting. Storms are on the ocean. The people in charge of increasing or reducing greenhouse gas emissions are making investments in coal, gas, and oil, not in insulation, conservation, wind and solar. They are not subject to the consent of the governed that is central to democracy. Here are the Top Ten Investors in Fossil Fuels on the planet. https://www.responsible-investor.com/study-reveals-top-10-shareholders-of-worlds-fossil-fuel-reserves/#:~:text=Fidelity%20Management%20%26%20Research%2C%20Dimensional%2C,according%20to%20new%20academic%20research.. A representative statement regarding global warming was made by a BlackRock representative:

"Because the global economy today is carbon intensive, the portfolios of most diversified investors...remain carbon intensive. That cannot and will not change overnight, and BlackRock's aggregate portfolio will necessarily be subject to the investment decisions of our clients."

In other words, don’t look to BlackRock management to divest from fossil fuels.

Oh, I think we should anyway. It's less shameful and more rewarding than chopping down trees.

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