If we take the presidential year congressional vote as a proxy or estimate for what we expect the next midterm vote to be, we might want to correct for forces peculiar to the presidential year, usually those associated with the presidential election. Removing those would provide a better estimate of what the midterm vote would be if nothing unusual happened. There are a number of possible ways of removing the presidential influence, e.g., estimating how much of a net drag JFK was on the Democratic ticket in 1960 or Goldwater was on the Republican ticket in 1964. The best ones would presumably improve the fit of the regression lines of midterm on prior congressional vote split.
Very helpful. For the chart on the shift from presidential to midterm vote, what happens if you factor in presidential vote? At first glance, it appears that when Democrat presidents lead the ticket, their absence is sorely missed two years later, while when they drag the ticket while being elected, Dems bounce back well.
Really interesting. One thing I've started to think about it how Sinema and Manchin's reluctance to kill the filibuster will impact Dems in 2022. Normally the out-party has a lot to run against in the midterms (thinking Obamacare or something) but if the filibuster is still in place, Biden could be sitting with just the American Rescue Plan, the American Jobs Plan, and maybe a police reform bill. That means he would have the most popular first two years for a president in recent memory, which I know thanks to the new Economist polling trackers.
Thoughts on how that could dampen the midterm penalty?
If we take the presidential year congressional vote as a proxy or estimate for what we expect the next midterm vote to be, we might want to correct for forces peculiar to the presidential year, usually those associated with the presidential election. Removing those would provide a better estimate of what the midterm vote would be if nothing unusual happened. There are a number of possible ways of removing the presidential influence, e.g., estimating how much of a net drag JFK was on the Democratic ticket in 1960 or Goldwater was on the Republican ticket in 1964. The best ones would presumably improve the fit of the regression lines of midterm on prior congressional vote split.
Very helpful. For the chart on the shift from presidential to midterm vote, what happens if you factor in presidential vote? At first glance, it appears that when Democrat presidents lead the ticket, their absence is sorely missed two years later, while when they drag the ticket while being elected, Dems bounce back well.
Really interesting. One thing I've started to think about it how Sinema and Manchin's reluctance to kill the filibuster will impact Dems in 2022. Normally the out-party has a lot to run against in the midterms (thinking Obamacare or something) but if the filibuster is still in place, Biden could be sitting with just the American Rescue Plan, the American Jobs Plan, and maybe a police reform bill. That means he would have the most popular first two years for a president in recent memory, which I know thanks to the new Economist polling trackers.
Thoughts on how that could dampen the midterm penalty?