Great piece here! Presidential approval ratings are crucial. One Senate race, you did not mention is Wisconsin, where Senator Ron Johnson may or may not run for reelection. As a former Wisconsinite, I'm skeptical of it ultimately flipping. I'm not sure about Democrats' chances in North Carolina either.
Hey Elliott - what would be your preferred alternative to our current congressional voting system to combat gerrymandering (I assume you have one)? I see a lot of chatter about ranked-choice, though I'm not sure that helps in a funky district shape. Proportional representation would make if all house elections were statewide, but I assume there'd still be ways to game the system...
If I were drawing up my own system, I’d opt for something similar to New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system. You can read about that on wiki. But short or re-drafting the constitution, Don Beyer’s Fair Representation Act is the way to go. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_Representation_Act_(United_States)
What do you think is the effect of higher propensity voters moving towards the Dems and lower propensity voters moving toward the GOP? Seems like that would improve Dems' midterm fortunes
Davis — I think that’s right, but these things are relatively hard to predict. What made Dems high-propensity voters in 2020 might not translate in 2022, depending on a whole bunch of factors (like who’s running, which issues are salient, etc). Plus, there are still a lot of people who change their minds!
It would be interesting to see how your calculations change if PR and DC are granted statehood. Seems like a long shot given filibuster but perhaps for that very reason Dems need to be constantly reminded of the possibility. ;
Zb — I don’t think that matters in the House, since we’re only talking about 2 seats. The GOP could gerrymander their way out of that hole very easily
Hi Elliott,
Great piece here! Presidential approval ratings are crucial. One Senate race, you did not mention is Wisconsin, where Senator Ron Johnson may or may not run for reelection. As a former Wisconsinite, I'm skeptical of it ultimately flipping. I'm not sure about Democrats' chances in North Carolina either.
-Elliot
Hey Elliott - what would be your preferred alternative to our current congressional voting system to combat gerrymandering (I assume you have one)? I see a lot of chatter about ranked-choice, though I'm not sure that helps in a funky district shape. Proportional representation would make if all house elections were statewide, but I assume there'd still be ways to game the system...
If I were drawing up my own system, I’d opt for something similar to New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system. You can read about that on wiki. But short or re-drafting the constitution, Don Beyer’s Fair Representation Act is the way to go. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_Representation_Act_(United_States)
What do you think is the effect of higher propensity voters moving towards the Dems and lower propensity voters moving toward the GOP? Seems like that would improve Dems' midterm fortunes
Davis — I think that’s right, but these things are relatively hard to predict. What made Dems high-propensity voters in 2020 might not translate in 2022, depending on a whole bunch of factors (like who’s running, which issues are salient, etc). Plus, there are still a lot of people who change their minds!
It would be interesting to see how your calculations change if PR and DC are granted statehood. Seems like a long shot given filibuster but perhaps for that very reason Dems need to be constantly reminded of the possibility. ;
Zb — I don’t think that matters in the House, since we’re only talking about 2 seats. The GOP could gerrymander their way out of that hole very easily