It appears that Pennsylvania hasn't moved towards the Democrats unlike the rest of the Midwest/Rust Belt states. What is the difference between Pennsylvania and the rest of the Midwest including Wisconsin (the 2016 tipping point state) and Michigan? PA is currently the tipping point state in The Economist's model, so this seems important to understand.
Nice analysis. Have you compared your model with the Economist model? It would be interesting to know how much overlap. It could also reduce the uncertainty in both models.
Compared to my “toy” model, The Economist’s is much more complex. If I were going to bet on one I would choose theirs. That said there could be value in mentally averaging them together.
Great work as always!
It appears that Pennsylvania hasn't moved towards the Democrats unlike the rest of the Midwest/Rust Belt states. What is the difference between Pennsylvania and the rest of the Midwest including Wisconsin (the 2016 tipping point state) and Michigan? PA is currently the tipping point state in The Economist's model, so this seems important to understand.
I’m afraid I don’t have a great answer for you! It could always just be noise in the data. We’ll see if it sticks.
Nice analysis. Have you compared your model with the Economist model? It would be interesting to know how much overlap. It could also reduce the uncertainty in both models.
Compared to my “toy” model, The Economist’s is much more complex. If I were going to bet on one I would choose theirs. That said there could be value in mentally averaging them together.