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An analysis claiming one million voters switched to the GOP last year was fatally flawed
The authors misused voter file data, conflating estimates of party ID with real changes in registration. The error was fixed by other analysts who find…
G. Elliott Morris
Jun 30, 2022
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An analysis claiming one million voters switched to the GOP last year was fatally flawed
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The polling website where Republicans are winning in a landslide | #206 - October 9, 2022
A math and history lesson on why "unskewing" the polls is so hard
G. Elliott Morris
Oct 9, 2022
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The polling website where Republicans are winning in a landslide | #206 - October 9, 2022
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Can Democrats avoid a looming electoral disaster? | #192 – April 17, 2022
The Democratic Party was strongest electorally when it was a party for class-based economic liberalism. Regaining that identity will require compromise…
G. Elliott Morris
Apr 17, 2022
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Can Democrats avoid a looming electoral disaster? | #192 – April 17, 2022
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American democracy is screwed
Our best hope is a (very unlikely) mass mobilization of voters that favor multiparty democracy
G. Elliott Morris
Feb 1, 2020
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American democracy is screwed
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Your election night crystal ball 📊 November 1, 2020
These numbers could help us call an early Biden victory
G. Elliott Morris
Nov 2, 2020
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Your election night crystal ball 📊 November 1, 2020
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Joe Biden’s master plan: do popular stuff and tell people about it 📊 April 4, 2021
The Administration's apparent embrace of public opinion polling is good for democracy, and the party's midterm chances
G. Elliott Morris
Apr 4, 2021
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Joe Biden’s master plan: do popular stuff and tell people about it 📊 April 4, 2021
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The (good) pollsters got the midterms right
Pundits who ignored the polls and predicted a "red wave" got burned
G. Elliott Morris
Nov 11, 2022
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The (good) pollsters got the midterms right
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Roe v Wade and the end of majority rule in America | #195 – May 8, 2022
Overturning Roe v Wade is the result of a 50-year crusade of Christian conservatism — and right-wing minoritarianism
G. Elliott Morris
May 9, 2022
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Roe v Wade and the end of majority rule in America | #195 – May 8, 2022
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Biden is way ahead. Convince me I’m wrong
I want you to stress-test my reasoning to make sure it’s sound
G. Elliott Morris
May 28, 2020
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Biden is way ahead. Convince me I’m wrong
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What 2020 taught us about polarization and the polls 📊 November 15, 2020
Campaign events don’t matter as much, but error from non-response could be higher
G. Elliott Morris
Nov 16, 2020
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What 2020 taught us about polarization and the polls 📊 November 15, 2020
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Democrats will win more votes passing popular policies than compromising for bipartisanship's sake 📊 January 31, 2021
Research shows voters reward politicians for improving the economy and passing popular policies, and don’t care much about how it happens
G. Elliott Morris
Jan 31, 2021
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Democrats will win more votes passing popular policies than compromising for bipartisanship's sake 📊 January 31, 2021
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We are witnessing the consequences of Republican radicalization
Yesterday’s mob insurrection against the US government was a direct consequence of Trumpism, nationalism, conspiracy theories, and zero-sum politics
G. Elliott Morris
Jan 7, 2021
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We are witnessing the consequences of Republican radicalization
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