The authors misused voter file data, conflating estimates of party ID with real changes in registration. The error was fixed by other analysts who find…
A math and history lesson on why "unskewing" the polls is so hard
The Democratic Party was strongest electorally when it was a party for class-based economic liberalism. Regaining that identity will require compromise…
Our best hope is a (very unlikely) mass mobilization of voters that favor multiparty democracy
These numbers could help us call an early Biden victory
The Administration's apparent embrace of public opinion polling is good for democracy, and the party's midterm chances
Pundits who ignored the polls and predicted a "red wave" got burned
Overturning Roe v Wade is the result of a 50-year crusade of Christian conservatism — and right-wing minoritarianism
I want you to stress-test my reasoning to make sure it’s sound
Campaign events don’t matter as much, but error from non-response could be higher
Research shows voters reward politicians for improving the economy and passing popular policies, and don’t care much about how it happens
Yesterday’s mob insurrection against the US government was a direct consequence of Trumpism, nationalism, conspiracy theories, and zero-sum politics