The authors misused voter file data, conflating estimates of party ID with real changes in registration. The error was fixed by other analysts who find…
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A math and history lesson on why "unskewing" the polls is so hard
The Democratic Party was strongest electorally when it was a party for class-based economic liberalism. Regaining that identity will require compromise…
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Our best hope is a (very unlikely) mass mobilization of voters that favor multiparty democracy
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These numbers could help us call an early Biden victory
The Administration's apparent embrace of public opinion polling is good for democracy, and the party's midterm chances
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Pundits who ignored the polls and predicted a "red wave" got burned
Overturning Roe v Wade is the result of a 50-year crusade of Christian conservatism — and right-wing minoritarianism
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I want you to stress-test my reasoning to make sure it’s sound
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Campaign events don’t matter as much, but error from non-response could be higher
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Research shows voters reward politicians for improving the economy and passing popular policies, and don’t care much about how it happens
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Yesterday’s mob insurrection against the US government was a direct consequence of Trumpism, nationalism, conspiracy theories, and zero-sum politics
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