I've lived in that area. I grew up with people like this, but in the pre-Fox era, so gullibility was not a feature at that time. It's very hard, still, for me to comprehend the wild stuff people will believe. I mean...can they even make a functional microchip that will fit through the .25 millimeters of the typical vaccination needed? And it's transmitting to...where?
And all the while, their cell phones are providing real-time tracking of their locations while they freely share every moment of their day on Facebook. Who needs a microchip? It's mind-boggling.
What has always driven me insane is the contradictions in their positions they can't even reason through.
These same people who get many government benefits, hiring preferences, etc. still hate the government and redistributive policies...while being redistributed to. I see the same thing in farmers, who on the whole get massive welfare in the form of crop subsidies and various programs. But in my rural home town, you CANNOT point out how much more they get in government assistance than they pay in taxes because THEY deserve it while others are just suckling off the government without justification.
I just don't know what to think about the conservative mind anymore.
Maybe I'm misinterpreting the Economist graphs, but it looks like the share of respondents rating J&J as safe has left its former confidence interval -- and the same goes for those rating it as unsafe. It's clear that there's no reliable difference between safe and unsafe after the pause. But haven't the safe and unsafe answers changed in a statistically important way from before the pause?
Ed: Ratings of J&J have definitely changed. But look at the bottom chart: the same share of people say they will/won’t get vaccinated, so presumably the people who don’t want J&J because of this week’s news are just planning on getting Pfizer or Moderna.
Yes, quite right. I misread your framing of the results!
It's excellent news that folks still want to get vaccinated. But that might mean a flight to quality -- Moderna and Pfizer -- and an abandonment of J&J and increased hesitation around AstraZeneca (where it's approved). It's a bit out of your lane (and mine!), but what's your view of the logic behind the decision to put J&J on pause while the FDA and CDC learn more about the blood clots? Did it make sense, probabilistically and on policy grounds? If the pause creates global hesitation around J&J -- which could help less developed countries a lot -- we've lost a powerful tool.
It’s just my approximation, but I reckon leaders of other countries will be less reactionary than many of the people in the media who caused the firestorm this week. Once it has set in that the rates of clots aren’t any higher for J&J recipients than among the population as a whole, I think things will revert a bit (even if not all the way).
I got my first shot of the Pfizer vaccine this week. I'm glad the J&J pause hasn't halted demand for vaccines. I am worried about the people who are skeptical of being vaccinated regardless. I'm wondering how vaccine hesitancy will impact the amount of time for us to get back to "normal".
I'm not sure if it is ethical to time travel. For example, would I go back in time to tell my younger self about how to do well in my professors' classes or about the friends I made during college? Probably, but could it drastically change the direction of my life? Maybe.
Elliot: The hesitancy -> normality model is super complex, but I’ve been trying my hand at one. Might have results next month.
I think the better way to answer might just be to say that state governments will relax restrictions sooner than later because vaccinated people are going to start demanding it.
I had Pfizer Numero Uno last week too. No bad reaction but I’m dreading Numero Dos!
Jim and I have been fully vaccinated for more than a month. But fully 1/4 of US residents report that they refuse to get a vaccine. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/04/07/984697573/vaccine-refusal-may-put-herd-immunity-at-risk-researchers-warn This means that virus variants will continue to spread and an unknown %age of variants will overpower existing varieties for which we are vaccinated. This is, I suppose, nature's way of using Homo sapiens to reduce the Homo sapiens population. Nature's other ways include mass migrations of Homo saps, anthropogenic global warming, and unchecked resource destruction. As the past was what got us here and the future looks bleak ahead, neither nostalgia nor futurism beckons. Our business is to build a better future if we can and to live as citizenly as we can.
Martha: Infection give you antibodies too, at least for a while. So there is theoretically a point where enough people have been vaxxed (maybe 75% of adults, if we’re lucky) and 15% more have contracted the virus where we can hit herd immunity.
Yeah, so long are the virus is circulating, we’re in trouble. But presuming the mutations are occurring at a lower rate than vaccination + infection, we will outrun the virus. The problem is that a lot of people will die in the meantime.
First vaccine shot on Monday, finally!
Regarding hesitancy:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/17/veterans-coronavirus-vaccine/
I've lived in that area. I grew up with people like this, but in the pre-Fox era, so gullibility was not a feature at that time. It's very hard, still, for me to comprehend the wild stuff people will believe. I mean...can they even make a functional microchip that will fit through the .25 millimeters of the typical vaccination needed? And it's transmitting to...where?
And all the while, their cell phones are providing real-time tracking of their locations while they freely share every moment of their day on Facebook. Who needs a microchip? It's mind-boggling.
What has always driven me insane is the contradictions in their positions they can't even reason through.
These same people who get many government benefits, hiring preferences, etc. still hate the government and redistributive policies...while being redistributed to. I see the same thing in farmers, who on the whole get massive welfare in the form of crop subsidies and various programs. But in my rural home town, you CANNOT point out how much more they get in government assistance than they pay in taxes because THEY deserve it while others are just suckling off the government without justification.
I just don't know what to think about the conservative mind anymore.
Scott: Sounds a lot like where I’m from in rural TX
Was going to get J&J but had had settle for Moderna. So 6 weeks until I am fully vaccinated. I waited this long...
Congrats!
Maybe I'm misinterpreting the Economist graphs, but it looks like the share of respondents rating J&J as safe has left its former confidence interval -- and the same goes for those rating it as unsafe. It's clear that there's no reliable difference between safe and unsafe after the pause. But haven't the safe and unsafe answers changed in a statistically important way from before the pause?
Ed: Ratings of J&J have definitely changed. But look at the bottom chart: the same share of people say they will/won’t get vaccinated, so presumably the people who don’t want J&J because of this week’s news are just planning on getting Pfizer or Moderna.
Yes, quite right. I misread your framing of the results!
It's excellent news that folks still want to get vaccinated. But that might mean a flight to quality -- Moderna and Pfizer -- and an abandonment of J&J and increased hesitation around AstraZeneca (where it's approved). It's a bit out of your lane (and mine!), but what's your view of the logic behind the decision to put J&J on pause while the FDA and CDC learn more about the blood clots? Did it make sense, probabilistically and on policy grounds? If the pause creates global hesitation around J&J -- which could help less developed countries a lot -- we've lost a powerful tool.
It’s just my approximation, but I reckon leaders of other countries will be less reactionary than many of the people in the media who caused the firestorm this week. Once it has set in that the rates of clots aren’t any higher for J&J recipients than among the population as a whole, I think things will revert a bit (even if not all the way).
Hi Elliott,
I got my first shot of the Pfizer vaccine this week. I'm glad the J&J pause hasn't halted demand for vaccines. I am worried about the people who are skeptical of being vaccinated regardless. I'm wondering how vaccine hesitancy will impact the amount of time for us to get back to "normal".
I'm not sure if it is ethical to time travel. For example, would I go back in time to tell my younger self about how to do well in my professors' classes or about the friends I made during college? Probably, but could it drastically change the direction of my life? Maybe.
I hope you are having a great weekend!
Elliot
Elliot: The hesitancy -> normality model is super complex, but I’ve been trying my hand at one. Might have results next month.
I think the better way to answer might just be to say that state governments will relax restrictions sooner than later because vaccinated people are going to start demanding it.
I had Pfizer Numero Uno last week too. No bad reaction but I’m dreading Numero Dos!
ElliotT
Jim and I have been fully vaccinated for more than a month. But fully 1/4 of US residents report that they refuse to get a vaccine. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/04/07/984697573/vaccine-refusal-may-put-herd-immunity-at-risk-researchers-warn This means that virus variants will continue to spread and an unknown %age of variants will overpower existing varieties for which we are vaccinated. This is, I suppose, nature's way of using Homo sapiens to reduce the Homo sapiens population. Nature's other ways include mass migrations of Homo saps, anthropogenic global warming, and unchecked resource destruction. As the past was what got us here and the future looks bleak ahead, neither nostalgia nor futurism beckons. Our business is to build a better future if we can and to live as citizenly as we can.
Martha: Infection give you antibodies too, at least for a while. So there is theoretically a point where enough people have been vaxxed (maybe 75% of adults, if we’re lucky) and 15% more have contracted the virus where we can hit herd immunity.
Elliott, according to Dr. Fauci, Dr. Brilliant, and other epidemiologists and virologists working on Covid-19, the more time the virus has to mutate, the more mutations will occur. The more mutations occur, the lower the probability of herd immunity from the new mutations. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/16/what-are-the-new-covid-variants-and-what-do-they-mean-for-the-pandemic. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/a-new-strain-of-coronavirus-what-you-should-know
Yeah, so long are the virus is circulating, we’re in trouble. But presuming the mutations are occurring at a lower rate than vaccination + infection, we will outrun the virus. The problem is that a lot of people will die in the meantime.
Yes.