There has been a tendency in Washington over the past year to assume disaster for the Democrats. They will certainly lose their House majority, conventional wisdom dictates, and probably the Senate too.
Such predictions strike me as far too certain. A few articles from the past week show some bright signs for the Democrats in an otherwise dark year:
Economic turmoil is not certain to last until November. Noah Smith writes in his Noahpinion blog that prices are starting to come down for some key services and commodities. Above all, shipping costs are now lower than they were in July 2021 and are trending lower. That could give Democrats some economic headwinds later this year.
Then, Perry Bacon Jr writes about how the Democrats are currently beating vote-share forecasts based on Joe Biden’s low approval rating. Although Biden’s approval rating is a very low 39% today, Bacon references polling from The Economist and YouGov showing this is largely due to low ratings among Democratic voters and left-leaning groups who will vote for Congressional Democrats anyway (especially at the House level, where incumbency and candidate quality matter less than in the Senate). Presidential approval is an artificially bearish indicator, in other words.
Forecasters must also take candidate quality into account when determining Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate. This matters most in Georgia, where Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is running against former football player Herschel Walker — who has trouble articulating pretty much anything about politics or policy and is currently embroiled in a scandal involving several abandoned children. A poll this week suggests Warnock is currently in the lead, and his chances at holding a seat that should be red in a red year are currently 50-50 according to FiveThirtyEight’s newly launched forecasting model. Polls show Democrats in close races in other swing seats, too.
I think FiveThirtyEight’s new model is about right. And I think the conventional wisdom about what will happen in November — despite physics-like patterns of backlash to incumbent parties in the house — has been a bit to pessimistic on Democrats.
Although the overall environment is certainly bad for the Democrats, they may just get lucky enough to hold the Senate come Election Day. More luck, and smarter politics, might also lead to overperformance in the House.
Elliot, what do you think of the Post-Roe polls of the generic congressional ballot showing D leads and D ~+4 movement from previous polls in all three cases? Or the NE special election where the D candidate did 5 points better than Trump in 2020? Is this enough to be significant, or just low N noise?
Hi Noah fan. I think we need to wait for more polls to have a better idea. Some polls are showing movement, sure, but others aren't. And those that aren't are the polls that tend to weight by party ID or past vote, which can help control for partisan nonresponse in the data. If Democrats are particularly engaged right now because of the Dobbs decision than they may be more likely to answer polls and thus skew the results. We really just need more time to tell!
I think many progressives have legitimate concerns about him over-promising, eg re: student loans, a public option for health care, climate change response and child care. Lots of that is out of his control, obviously, but I do think he exaggerated what was possible here and very lefty Democrats expect more
I've recently snooped around and been informed (and it could all be lies and speculation) that the D leadership so hates the progressives in the party that they starve the progressives for funding and support for campaigns. Also that the party doesn't have enough $$ to pay for all media buys, campaigns, consultants, and so prioritize some candidates at the expense of others; and that they accept by inference if not statement that they are going to lose the House.
Elliot, what do you think of the Post-Roe polls of the generic congressional ballot showing D leads and D ~+4 movement from previous polls in all three cases? Or the NE special election where the D candidate did 5 points better than Trump in 2020? Is this enough to be significant, or just low N noise?
Hi Noah fan. I think we need to wait for more polls to have a better idea. Some polls are showing movement, sure, but others aren't. And those that aren't are the polls that tend to weight by party ID or past vote, which can help control for partisan nonresponse in the data. If Democrats are particularly engaged right now because of the Dobbs decision than they may be more likely to answer polls and thus skew the results. We really just need more time to tell!
The only reason I can imagine for Joe Biden's low approval ratings is Fox propaganda.
I think many progressives have legitimate concerns about him over-promising, eg re: student loans, a public option for health care, climate change response and child care. Lots of that is out of his control, obviously, but I do think he exaggerated what was possible here and very lefty Democrats expect more
So it’s the progressives who have so much clout that they drove down his ratings?
I think so, yeah... https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/01/maybe-democrats-not-doomed-in-november/
I've recently snooped around and been informed (and it could all be lies and speculation) that the D leadership so hates the progressives in the party that they starve the progressives for funding and support for campaigns. Also that the party doesn't have enough $$ to pay for all media buys, campaigns, consultants, and so prioritize some candidates at the expense of others; and that they accept by inference if not statement that they are going to lose the House.