1. Thanks for this perspective, Elliott.

2. Cook Political, Fivethirtyeight, and Larry Sabato are in general agreement - Democrats keep the Senate, may even pick up 1-2 seats, and probably lose the House.

3. It is equally as important or more important to focus on the races in the states for Governor, Attorneys General, Secretaries of State, and state legislatures. Keep in mind that gerrymandering and rules changes have made the states the battlegrounds for 2024.

Just in brief, Secretaries of States can halt the vote count - remember Florida Secretary of State Kathleen Harris in 2000? Did you know she was chairperson of Bush's Florida campaign?

The GOP has spent decades focusing on the states and in the past 20 years, the Democratic Party has lost 60% of state legislative chambers.


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Hi Elliott,

I think expectation management is key. I think there are a range of outcomes for the midterms. The Senate always looked competitive, but now that Democrats appear to be gaining in the polls, I've seen some predictions that are a bit out there. For example, do I really think Rubio is going to lose to Demings since Demings has gotten a few good polls during the last few weeks? No, I don't. I am also concerned about partisan non-response bias. If there is one, it could be overestimating support for Democrats. Overall, things could change, I am interested in seeing the post-Labor Day polls.

BTW, is the Economist going to release an election model for the midterms?

I hope all is well!


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Hello! I enjoy a good Simon Rosenberg post as much as the next Democratic person who is hoping against hope, but one thing is odd to me, his insistence that Republicans are under 50%. Is that actually meaningful?

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For basic party division of HR seats, I use the average seats after the past six midterm elections, 211 D - 223 R, which is what we might expect knowing nothing about the 2022 situation. Democrats and Republicans each had two surge years in this period, telegraphed in advance. In this period, only 2008 produced a surge linked to presidential victory; otherwise, parties have not held seats especially vulnerable in the subsequent midterm, true again in 2022. These basics would suggest a modest Republican gain, enough to control the House. Redistricting, presidential approval, candidate quality, fundraising, nature of the times, and the rest might usefully be considered in terms of how likely they are to move results from a partisan base.

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