Were the polls in 2016 similarly stable? Looking at 538 suggested they moved a *bit* more. Do you think this year is qualitatively different than the trends we saw (with the Dem ahead) in 2016?
Hi Sarah -- Good question! I find that the polls in 2020 are the stablest on record, and about 1.5x as stable as in 2016. Quantitatively: Biden's share of the vote in my averages has had a standard deviation of under one percentage point (0.98) over the course of 2020; Clinton's had a sd at this point in the cycle of 1.5 or so.
Were the polls in 2016 similarly stable? Looking at 538 suggested they moved a *bit* more. Do you think this year is qualitatively different than the trends we saw (with the Dem ahead) in 2016?
Hi Sarah -- Good question! I find that the polls in 2020 are the stablest on record, and about 1.5x as stable as in 2016. Quantitatively: Biden's share of the vote in my averages has had a standard deviation of under one percentage point (0.98) over the course of 2020; Clinton's had a sd at this point in the cycle of 1.5 or so.
if you come to rationalize Americans' appetite for fascism please do share.