We should be very very concerned about what will happen next cycle given Republicans actions this year. The refusal of Republican elected officials and Trump voters to accept the results of the election very frightening. I'm not sure a coup is the right word (many are using the word "coup" in describing what is happening. I'm not comfortable using the word "coup" or the word "treason" which some have used. I think Republicans are taking actions in line with authoritarian or fascist regimes. Unfortunately, some are trying to "both sides" this issue pointing to Senator Barbara Boxer's objection to the 2004 Election certification and several members of Congress objecting to the 2016 results. Both are very different from the Republicans are doing now. In 2004, John Kerry conceded and in 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded and then Vice President Biden shut down the objections in Congress. Al Gore also conceded after the controversial 2000 elections. A lot of the Republican Party refuse to accept Biden as President-elect and a significant number of Republicans attempted to overturn and challenge the election. These situations are not the same. Another two points, I've been hearing is that Democrats will take similar action in the future, but this seems to be a distraction from what Republicans are doing NOW. The other argument is that Raffesnperger, Congressman Adam Kinzinger, and other Republicans put their careers on the line to oppose Trump and should be praised for it. Raffesnperger wants to make it harder for people to vote and Kinzinger did not vote to impeach Trump (when opposing Trump really mattered). Should public officials deserve praise for upholding the Constitution and democratic norms or are they just doing their jobs as we should expect them to? Does that "cancel out" or "erase" their past actions? I think we should have very high standards, but some may disagree.
For the Georgia Senate runoffs, my original assumption was that Republicans would narrowly win the runoffs, but now I think Democrats may be slightly favored to win. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Yes, I certainly share your concerns re: how this year might embolden some Republicans to take anti-democracy campaigns even further in the future. I'd go one step beyond your comments and ask: if one party is committed to breaking the rules for their own electoral gain, do we really have a free and fair democracy? I suppose the answer is "barely" verging on "no."
In re: your question of the word "coup," I am less sure. Trump's actions surely do not meet the traditional definition by comparative political scientists that usually involves the violent overthrow of democratic guardrails and institutions (the courts, legislature, press, etc.), but in the layman's understanding of a coup as a more general campaign against democratic legitimacy, surely we can use it? I think that a lot of the people who write "no this isn't a coup #ackshually" are just being pedantic. When we're writing for the layman, I generally air on the side of calling it like they would understand it.
But whatever this is, calling on people to rise up against vote-counters, and calling vote-counters to pressure them to change vote tallies or else, certainly isn't _good_ for democracy. It's important that as many people as possible agree with that.
The Economist's Democracy Index considers the United States a flawed democracy. Given the state of the Republican Party and its impact on democracy (among other things), I have to agree with that assessment.
On another note, I've reread It's Even Worse Than It Looks by Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein over the holidays. Mann and Ornstein argue that America's political parties are opposed to each other like parliamentary parties, but since we don't have a parliamentary system, it is difficult to govern effectively. They also talk about asymmetric polarization and the Republican party's actions towards Democrats.
I get where you are coming from with the use of the word "coup", I just want to be careful while using words like "coup" and "treason", these aren't words to be used lightly.
I think a key world is missing after probably, great cliffhanger.
"My advice is to go into Tuesday thinking that the Democrats will probably, but don’t be surprised if either party sweeps the races — even by pretty large margins. All these data are little more than tea leaves in this environment"
Elliott,
We should be very very concerned about what will happen next cycle given Republicans actions this year. The refusal of Republican elected officials and Trump voters to accept the results of the election very frightening. I'm not sure a coup is the right word (many are using the word "coup" in describing what is happening. I'm not comfortable using the word "coup" or the word "treason" which some have used. I think Republicans are taking actions in line with authoritarian or fascist regimes. Unfortunately, some are trying to "both sides" this issue pointing to Senator Barbara Boxer's objection to the 2004 Election certification and several members of Congress objecting to the 2016 results. Both are very different from the Republicans are doing now. In 2004, John Kerry conceded and in 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded and then Vice President Biden shut down the objections in Congress. Al Gore also conceded after the controversial 2000 elections. A lot of the Republican Party refuse to accept Biden as President-elect and a significant number of Republicans attempted to overturn and challenge the election. These situations are not the same. Another two points, I've been hearing is that Democrats will take similar action in the future, but this seems to be a distraction from what Republicans are doing NOW. The other argument is that Raffesnperger, Congressman Adam Kinzinger, and other Republicans put their careers on the line to oppose Trump and should be praised for it. Raffesnperger wants to make it harder for people to vote and Kinzinger did not vote to impeach Trump (when opposing Trump really mattered). Should public officials deserve praise for upholding the Constitution and democratic norms or are they just doing their jobs as we should expect them to? Does that "cancel out" or "erase" their past actions? I think we should have very high standards, but some may disagree.
For the Georgia Senate runoffs, my original assumption was that Republicans would narrowly win the runoffs, but now I think Democrats may be slightly favored to win. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
-Elliot
Elliot,
Thanks for a thorough comment every week.
Yes, I certainly share your concerns re: how this year might embolden some Republicans to take anti-democracy campaigns even further in the future. I'd go one step beyond your comments and ask: if one party is committed to breaking the rules for their own electoral gain, do we really have a free and fair democracy? I suppose the answer is "barely" verging on "no."
In re: your question of the word "coup," I am less sure. Trump's actions surely do not meet the traditional definition by comparative political scientists that usually involves the violent overthrow of democratic guardrails and institutions (the courts, legislature, press, etc.), but in the layman's understanding of a coup as a more general campaign against democratic legitimacy, surely we can use it? I think that a lot of the people who write "no this isn't a coup #ackshually" are just being pedantic. When we're writing for the layman, I generally air on the side of calling it like they would understand it.
But whatever this is, calling on people to rise up against vote-counters, and calling vote-counters to pressure them to change vote tallies or else, certainly isn't _good_ for democracy. It's important that as many people as possible agree with that.
The Economist's Democracy Index considers the United States a flawed democracy. Given the state of the Republican Party and its impact on democracy (among other things), I have to agree with that assessment.
On another note, I've reread It's Even Worse Than It Looks by Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein over the holidays. Mann and Ornstein argue that America's political parties are opposed to each other like parliamentary parties, but since we don't have a parliamentary system, it is difficult to govern effectively. They also talk about asymmetric polarization and the Republican party's actions towards Democrats.
I get where you are coming from with the use of the word "coup", I just want to be careful while using words like "coup" and "treason", these aren't words to be used lightly.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/01/22/global-democracy-has-another-bad-year
I think a key world is missing after probably, great cliffhanger.
"My advice is to go into Tuesday thinking that the Democrats will probably, but don’t be surprised if either party sweeps the races — even by pretty large margins. All these data are little more than tea leaves in this environment"
Oops! “Probably win.”