As I write this, the New York Times live forecast needles show the Democrats as slight favorites to win both of the runoff Senate races in Georgia. Things look a bit better for them than the general election results, but maybe a bit more Republican than the polls suggested.
So far, counties that have fully reported are on average three points more Democratic than the presidential election results in those counties. These counties aren’t representative of Georgia as a whole, though; something surprising could happen in Atlanta.
Needles (get it?) to say, Democrats aren’t all the way home yet, but this is looking good for them so far.
Join me here (and not on Twitter) to chat about the results as the rest roll in.
EDIT: This looks over to me, folks, so I’m abandoning the thread. Thanks to all who participated! I’m leaving the comments unlocked so y’all can still chat, but won’t be coming back regularly anymore.
Here is a comment inspired by my parents, who I am currently video-chatting with. They are watching CNN and shouting at the TV, where results are oscillating around 50-50. I have told them to turn it off and look at the NYT needle because it can "time travel" for you. This advice applies to all of you readers as well.
The reason I keep saying that we need to wait for results in and around Atlanta is because the groups that live there (college-educated whites, African Americans) are under-represented in other parts of the state. If they have a turnout problem we won't know until we get the results. But That's really the only reason to hold off on any sort of Dem bullishness right now, IMO.
Appreciate you providing us your thoughts tonight, Elliott. I noticed you hadn't posted anything on Twitter earlier, so I was pleasantly surprised to see this.
Based on what you’re seeing thus far, who is pacing best? I remember during Jones AL race in ‘17 watching the results and a coworker of mine said that Jones had already won based on the fact that the only places that hadn’t come in yet would be voting overwhelmingly for him.
Obviously, the election results will be taken as a judgment on the efficacy of candidates' strategies, along with any impact of the President's election denialism/autogolpe attempts. Is there any way to evaluate that more directly/look at variables closer to that? Or is that kinda just the limit we're faced with?
I heard a lot in the last couple days about a "red mirage" tonight, with Democratic-leaning votes from Atlanta, etc. coming in later. Is that still likely? Is the fact that the Dems are still up at this point a good sign? Thanks for all your great and insightful work!
Here is a comment inspired by my parents, who I am currently video-chatting with. They are watching CNN and shouting at the TV, where results are oscillating around 50-50. I have told them to turn it off and look at the NYT needle because it can "time travel" for you. This advice applies to all of you readers as well.
Here's another update, from Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report:
"The first heavily Dem rural county, Macon Co., is fully reporting:
Ossoff: +25.0
Warnock: +25.6
Biden (Nov.): +21.3
And turnout is at 91.8% of November levels. Possibly the single best piece of data for the Dems yet."
Macon County is in the lower half of the state, but if Atlanta looks like this, then it's over.
The reason I keep saying that we need to wait for results in and around Atlanta is because the groups that live there (college-educated whites, African Americans) are under-represented in other parts of the state. If they have a turnout problem we won't know until we get the results. But That's really the only reason to hold off on any sort of Dem bullishness right now, IMO.
Appreciate you providing us your thoughts tonight, Elliott. I noticed you hadn't posted anything on Twitter earlier, so I was pleasantly surprised to see this.
I’m here for the raw R model outputs!
One side note - when is the book out? And, what is the best bourbon to pair with a Georgia Senate run off? - I am having some Makers Mark
Based on what you’re seeing thus far, who is pacing best? I remember during Jones AL race in ‘17 watching the results and a coworker of mine said that Jones had already won based on the fact that the only places that hadn’t come in yet would be voting overwhelmingly for him.
WARNOCK WON: DECISION DESK - https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1346671627518566400
Is there any data on how Latinos are breaking in GA? Mainly if Warnock/Ossoff are performing better or worse than Biden in Nov with Latinos?
Interesting that Warnock is running ahead of Ossoff, moderately but noticeably, when he was almost exclusively the target of GOP attacks (e.g. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/us/politics/georgia-senate-debate-warnock-loeffler.html). What's going on there, do you think? Candidate quality, incumbency advantage, something else?
Obviously, the election results will be taken as a judgment on the efficacy of candidates' strategies, along with any impact of the President's election denialism/autogolpe attempts. Is there any way to evaluate that more directly/look at variables closer to that? Or is that kinda just the limit we're faced with?
I heard a lot in the last couple days about a "red mirage" tonight, with Democratic-leaning votes from Atlanta, etc. coming in later. Is that still likely? Is the fact that the Dems are still up at this point a good sign? Thanks for all your great and insightful work!