Given all the problems with accurate polling of the Republican Refuseniks about whom you are writing, why should we believe more polls making the claim that 80% of them think Biden stole the election? What polling methods were used to reach these people? How do we know that their responses to the question about election fraud don't simply reflect their anger that Biden did, in fact, win--- which they know, but won't admit? Isn't it more comforting for them to tell a pollster that Biden won through fraud?
In short, I no longer know what the 74 million people who voted for Trump really believe about the election, or Biden, EXCEPT the following: Some of them are strongly opposed to abortion; some of them are strongly wedded to their guns; some of them believe religion is under assault; some of them are white supremacists of varying intensity; and some of them just want more tax cuts. That is what "binds" them together as a party. Democrats will never reach them unless and until they confront these issues.
David, the question is a fair one, but it may miss the mark a little. The election results showed that polls miss support for Trump by 3 or 4 points nationwide. If we think that means they would also underestimate the Trumpian position on, say, election legitimacy (which I'm not sure it would, but let's assume that's right), then a position with ~80% support would probably be favored by at least 70% of them. I think that's high enough that we can still write about it.
In choosing to highlight the poll number that 80% or so of Republicans think Biden won the election through fraudulent means, you have made a journalistic judgment that this poll number actually means something. That it is newsworthy. What is that?
Do think it means that these Republicans will not vote in the Georgia runoff or in the 2022 elections? If they choose not to participate, should we care?
If they choose to continue participating in elections, isn't that a good thing? Sure. But is it newsworthy? No.
Are you suggesting this group is capable of engaging in violence against the government or fellow citizens who do not support Trump ideology? If so, there is slight evidence of it. Much has been made (as it should) of the planned Michigan kidnapping and assassination of the governor, but all the Trump threats about violence surrounding the election turned out, like Trump, to be hollow. He didn't try to cancel the election in advance. He didn't send troops or police to polling places. The Proud Boys didn't intimidate voters. There were no riots of consequence following the election results.
In short, I can see no useful meaning in this 80 percent figure. A number by itself means nothing. You owe it to your readers to grapple with the real implications of this number, unless you think they are fleeting, or illusory, in which case you ought not bother to write about such a number.
Has there been any analysis of the increase in turnout for Trump in 2020 compared to 2016? Who are the voters that sat out in 2016 but after the last four years were motivated to come out for Trump this year?
The latest numbers have Trump getting almost 11 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016, but I haven't seen anyone look at who these voters are and what it was that motivated them. The almost 15 million more votes that Biden got versus Clinton are explained as voters repulsed by Trump, and data like the massive disapproval of Trump by Biden voters seems to confirm that. Trump is clearly redefining the character of the GOP, but has that redefinition brought in new voters? If not, what has?
Darren: One helpful way to think about turnout is that there are many more Trump supporters than there are Trump voters, and vice versa for Clinton/Biden. That is, it's easy to support a candidate, and harder to go out to vote. A turnout increase tells us a lot about the latter, but not so much about the former. I've run some analyses that show that most non-voters are Democrats, so the increased turnout helping Democrats is as to be expected. This just seems a case of all those non-voting Trump supporters actually getting to the polls this time around.
If 88% of Republicans do not believe Joe Biden will be legitimate President, we're screwed.
Donald Trump began his rise in politics by trying to validate a conspiracy theory that President Barack Obama was a illegitimate President which some of his future voters believed. He ironically gained a following because his supporters believe that he is "telling how it is and the Media is fake news." Then Trump was elected President. President Trump gives his voters more validation of their beliefs, standing behind the Presidential Seal, speaking lies, conspiracy theories, and disinformation. If Trump voters think "if the President of the United States says it is true, then it must be true," they will have more support in their belief in falsehoods and conspiracy theories. This is an endless cycle during the Trump Presidency. Will a President Biden be able to reach some of these voters when he is behind the Presidential Seal telling people wear a mask? Can Biden rebuild trust? What can we as citizens do to help rebuild trust? I do not have answers to these questions.
Sorry about being somewhat of a downer, but I hope everyone had a great Thanksgivings.
Elliot: It is easy, and rational, to feel pessimistic about the future. I like to take holidays to remember some reasons for optimism. Even if we can't find any, we might have to try. That's the only way to rebuild trust in the end.
Elliott, I hope that Biden restores faith in government institutions and ever so slightly reduces polarization. Providing moral leadership and having a successful rollout of a COVID vaccine starts us on that path. That is the most optimistic and realistic scenario, I can think of.
Given all the problems with accurate polling of the Republican Refuseniks about whom you are writing, why should we believe more polls making the claim that 80% of them think Biden stole the election? What polling methods were used to reach these people? How do we know that their responses to the question about election fraud don't simply reflect their anger that Biden did, in fact, win--- which they know, but won't admit? Isn't it more comforting for them to tell a pollster that Biden won through fraud?
In short, I no longer know what the 74 million people who voted for Trump really believe about the election, or Biden, EXCEPT the following: Some of them are strongly opposed to abortion; some of them are strongly wedded to their guns; some of them believe religion is under assault; some of them are white supremacists of varying intensity; and some of them just want more tax cuts. That is what "binds" them together as a party. Democrats will never reach them unless and until they confront these issues.
David Rubin
Summerville, SC
David, the question is a fair one, but it may miss the mark a little. The election results showed that polls miss support for Trump by 3 or 4 points nationwide. If we think that means they would also underestimate the Trumpian position on, say, election legitimacy (which I'm not sure it would, but let's assume that's right), then a position with ~80% support would probably be favored by at least 70% of them. I think that's high enough that we can still write about it.
Mr. Morris:
In choosing to highlight the poll number that 80% or so of Republicans think Biden won the election through fraudulent means, you have made a journalistic judgment that this poll number actually means something. That it is newsworthy. What is that?
Do think it means that these Republicans will not vote in the Georgia runoff or in the 2022 elections? If they choose not to participate, should we care?
If they choose to continue participating in elections, isn't that a good thing? Sure. But is it newsworthy? No.
Are you suggesting this group is capable of engaging in violence against the government or fellow citizens who do not support Trump ideology? If so, there is slight evidence of it. Much has been made (as it should) of the planned Michigan kidnapping and assassination of the governor, but all the Trump threats about violence surrounding the election turned out, like Trump, to be hollow. He didn't try to cancel the election in advance. He didn't send troops or police to polling places. The Proud Boys didn't intimidate voters. There were no riots of consequence following the election results.
In short, I can see no useful meaning in this 80 percent figure. A number by itself means nothing. You owe it to your readers to grapple with the real implications of this number, unless you think they are fleeting, or illusory, in which case you ought not bother to write about such a number.
Has there been any analysis of the increase in turnout for Trump in 2020 compared to 2016? Who are the voters that sat out in 2016 but after the last four years were motivated to come out for Trump this year?
The latest numbers have Trump getting almost 11 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016, but I haven't seen anyone look at who these voters are and what it was that motivated them. The almost 15 million more votes that Biden got versus Clinton are explained as voters repulsed by Trump, and data like the massive disapproval of Trump by Biden voters seems to confirm that. Trump is clearly redefining the character of the GOP, but has that redefinition brought in new voters? If not, what has?
Darren: One helpful way to think about turnout is that there are many more Trump supporters than there are Trump voters, and vice versa for Clinton/Biden. That is, it's easy to support a candidate, and harder to go out to vote. A turnout increase tells us a lot about the latter, but not so much about the former. I've run some analyses that show that most non-voters are Democrats, so the increased turnout helping Democrats is as to be expected. This just seems a case of all those non-voting Trump supporters actually getting to the polls this time around.
If 88% of Republicans do not believe Joe Biden will be legitimate President, we're screwed.
Donald Trump began his rise in politics by trying to validate a conspiracy theory that President Barack Obama was a illegitimate President which some of his future voters believed. He ironically gained a following because his supporters believe that he is "telling how it is and the Media is fake news." Then Trump was elected President. President Trump gives his voters more validation of their beliefs, standing behind the Presidential Seal, speaking lies, conspiracy theories, and disinformation. If Trump voters think "if the President of the United States says it is true, then it must be true," they will have more support in their belief in falsehoods and conspiracy theories. This is an endless cycle during the Trump Presidency. Will a President Biden be able to reach some of these voters when he is behind the Presidential Seal telling people wear a mask? Can Biden rebuild trust? What can we as citizens do to help rebuild trust? I do not have answers to these questions.
Sorry about being somewhat of a downer, but I hope everyone had a great Thanksgivings.
Elliot: It is easy, and rational, to feel pessimistic about the future. I like to take holidays to remember some reasons for optimism. Even if we can't find any, we might have to try. That's the only way to rebuild trust in the end.
Elliott, I hope that Biden restores faith in government institutions and ever so slightly reduces polarization. Providing moral leadership and having a successful rollout of a COVID vaccine starts us on that path. That is the most optimistic and realistic scenario, I can think of.