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Hi Elliott,

I agree that it is the “rally-around-the-flag” effect. As you mention, the historical patterns suggest that the State of the Union doesn't really help with Presidential approval ratings. Viewership of the State of the Union has gone down since 1993, so it would be harder for a President to get a bounce assuming there was one.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/252425/state-of-the-union-address-viewer-numbers/

https://www.axios.com/biden-state-of-the-union-tv-ratings-83a01848-9504-4eb6-a449-fe1ef07b4586.html

I hope all is well!

Elliot

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Agreed!

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