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How overconfidence hurts the polling and forecasting industries

gelliottmorris.substack.com

How overconfidence hurts the polling and forecasting industries

Some reflections on an attention-grabbing forecasting method and thoughts about how election forecasting actually works

G. Elliott Morris
Jul 18, 2019
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Share this post

How overconfidence hurts the polling and forecasting industries

gelliottmorris.substack.com

How quantitative forecasting works:

The Takeaway: As we approach the 2020 election, beware of attention-grabby, overconfident “forecasts” that purport to be better than all of the other ones. Listen o…

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