Bad economic news could doom Trump
Bad economic news could doom Trump
Polls say that the president has little else to lean on
What to expect when you’re expecting a recession
The Takeaway: Trump’s approval rating today is high enough that he’s probably just a slight favorite for re-election. But his odds are better than they would be under a bad economy. Too bad for him, voters are souring on that, too.
Editor’s note:
Thanks for reading my thoughts on this subject. And thanks for subscribing! Your membership adds up and makes all this newslettering possible (reminder: I do all this work independently). Please consider sharing online or with a friend; the more readers, the merrier. Remember that apart from getting special articles subscribers can also comment below each post and participate in exclusive threads.
As always, send me your tips about what you’d like to read about next. Or what you don’t want to read. Or your feedback otherwise. Also, cat pictures are nice, so please send them to me! I’m elliott@thecrosstab.com, or @gelliottmorris on Twitter.
Thanks all,
—Elliott
Here’s a clipping from a poll that AP-NORC released last week:
Just 36% of Americans approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president; 62% disapprove.
The numbers may be ugly for a first-term president facing reelection in 14 months, but they are remarkably consistent. Trump’s approval rating has never dipped below 32% or risen above 42% in AP-NORC polls since he took office.
No other president has stayed within so narrow a band. Since Gallup began measuring presidential approval, Trump is the only president whose rating has never been above 50%. Still, several — Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush — logged ratings worse than Trump’s lowest rating so far at some point during their time in office.
Trump’s poor grades in the AP-NORC poll extend to his handling of several key issues: immigration, health care, foreign policy and guns. Views of the Republican president’s handling of the economy remain a relative bright spot despite fears of a potential recession, but at least 60% of Americans disapprove of his performance on other issues. The consistency suggests the president’s weak standing with the American people is calcified after two years of near-constant political crises and divisive rhetoric at the White House.
Donald Trump is unpopular today, AP-NORC’s polling shows, but his numbers are being shored up by a relatively good economy. Here’s the graphic they included in their poll:
The bad news for Trump? The economy may be taking a sharp turn downward soon. Voters are starting to notice a recent decrease in the value of major stock market indicators, blaring recessions indicators and sagging GDP growth that only keeps been revised lower. Here are some numbers from YouGov showing that the share of Americans who think the economy is “getting worse” is near an all-time high for the Trump presidency:
If we combine voters’ attitudes toward Trump and the economy with numbers from past presidencies, we can forecast how the 2020 election might go. The news is not great for the president. Political scientist and august forecaster Alan Abramowitz passed along these numbers to me: At 2% GDP growth and a -15 approval rating—Trump’s average numbers today, though not guaranteed to be his numbers next November—the president would be a modest favorite for losing re-election next year. At -10 approval and 2% GDP growth, Alan’s model predicts Trump would win 283 electoral votes. At -20 approval, he would win 239.
All this means that if the economy goes south, Trump would probably lose in 2020. Keep your eyes on the index of consumer sentiment (which, yikes):
