Sitemap - 2019 - Elliott’s notebook

Joe Biden’s hopeless embrace of bipartisanship

December 29, 2019 📊 Democratic voters might be more loyal to their party than they were in 2016

Are Democratic primary polls actually rigged against non-white voters?

🎄Ho Ho Ho🎄Special offers (plural!) and gift subscriptions

Everything is broken and nothing matters anymore

December 15, 2019 📊 Why Pete Buttigieg was always doomed (probably)

Is this the end of popular presidential candidates?

December 8, 2019 📊 Britain's election isn't over til it's over

Independents are the key to Trump's impeachment fallout

December 1, 2019 📊 Buttigieg has taken supporters from Warren, not Biden

The real lesson from elections in Kentucky and Louisiana

How responsive is public opinion?

November 17, 2019 📊 Obama is probably right about Democrats’ leftward drift

Buttigieg's rise has cost Biden and Warren the most early-state support

November 10, 2019 📊 The 2020 election will be close (until it's not)

Bloomberg schmoomberg

November 3, 2019 📊 Where are the swing voters?

How liberal are Democratic primary voters?

October 27, 2019 📊The puzzle of Joe Biden’s lead

A brewing 2020 Democratic revolt?

Oops! October 20, 2019 📊 Are 2020 general election polls actually good right now?

October 20, 2019 📊 Are 2020 general election polls actually good right now?

Don't pay attention to election forecasting models based only on economics

Still no evidence of a decline in Republican party identification since 2016

October 13, 2019 📊 Elizabeth Warren is a coalition-builder

Can we trust impeachment polling?

Why parties shouldn’t use polls to vet candidates

September 29, 2019 📊 How many Americans actually support impeachment?

A better measure of 2020 electability

What polls say about impeachment

September 22, 2019 📊 Which Democrats are still actually in the running for 2020?

Voter turnout will be high in 2020. We don't really know what that means yet

September 15, 2019 📊 Could Donald Trump's presidency be creating a generation of Democrats?

CHAT: What we learned from the special election in North Carolina's 9th congressional district

What we learned from the special election in North Carolina's 9th congressional district

September 8, 2019 📊 Do Republican retirements predict a "blue wave" for 2020?

Why Howard Schultz's presidential bid was doomed from the start

September 1, 2019 📊 Are pollsters herding their polls of the 2020 Democratic primary?

Bad economic news could doom Trump

Good news and also yeah some bad news

"Electability" is a function of your opponent, too. That's bad news for Trump.

August 18, 2019 📊 Will third party voters spoil the 2020 presidential election?

The state of the states in the 2020 Democratic nominating contest

Can early economic conditions predict elections?

August 11, 2019 📊 The end for Joe Biden

What's dividing voters in the 2020 Democratic primary?

August 4, 2019 📊 What’s the chance of a blue Texas?

Gun violence, white nationalism, and Donald Trump

The political science on impeaching Trump

The electoral link in support for impeaching Trump

July 28, 2019 📊 What would a Biden or Warren victory actually mean?

Can we talk about UK polling for a second?

Impeachment looks less likely than ever

July 21, 2019 📊 How Democrats' electoral college disadvantage could grow... or crumble

How overconfidence hurts the polling and forecasting industries

Democrats need at least some swing voters in 2020

A weekend recess

The decline of Bernie Sanders

July 7, 2019 📊 Do we actually know anything concrete (and data-driven) about the state of the 2020 Democratic primary candidates?

June 30, 2019 📊What does the first 2020 primary debate mean for the Democrats?

Don't hire writers that don't have political numeracy

Subscribers-only chat: Democratic debate round 2: FIGHT

The not-so-backlash "backlash" to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

June 23, 2019 📊How much do presidential primary debates matter?

About early polling

How to think about all these 2020 polls

June 16, 2019 📊What a liberal Democratic president could accomplish

Chat: Warren in second place in yet another 2020 poll

Elizabeth Warren is gaining steam

June 9, 2019 📊 Can a "religious left" match the Christian Right?

Some early 2020 warning signs for Trump

June 2, 2019 📊 The political mood still favors Democrats, but noisy signals abound

Understanding Trump's base when it comes to tariffs (and everything else)

The issue with polling on impeachment

May 26, 2019 📊 Nationalism and nativism are no longer fringe movements

53% of Democrats think impeachment should be a top priority for Congress

Coming tomorrow: paid posts

May 19, 2019 📊 Should Democrats go after Trump voters or non-voters?

May 12, 2019 📊 What makes 2020 different than 2016?

May 5, 2019 📊 Democrats: "What we want, baby who's got it?"

April 28, 2019 📊 Biden is out front, but for how long?

April 21, 2019 📊 What comes after the Mueller report?

April 7, 2019 📊 The Buttigieg Email: What Is with the "Mayor Pete" Hype?

March 31, 2019 📊 Why Trump's New Health Care Crusade Will Probably Backfire

March 24, 2019 📊 Reactions to the End of Mueller's Investigation

The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 March 17, 2019

The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 March 10, 2019

The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 March 3, 2019

The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 February 24, 2019

The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 February 17, 2019

The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 February 3, 2019

The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 January 20, 2019

The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 January 13, 2019

The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 January 6, 2019