I spent the morning thinking over the broader news coverage of this Tuesday’s elections, particularly in Virginia. I have a few thoughts to share over what Democrats may be able to learn from Terry McAuliffe’s narrow loss to Glenn Youngkin.
Before we get there, though, here’s what I view as the clearest and most data-driven explanation for what happened on Tuesday. This is according to what I see in the precinct-level returns data from the Old Dominion state.
First, turnout was clearly down much more in the bluest precincts and densest counties than in the whiter, more Republican, and less populous areas of the state. This is itself not at all surprising; the party that controls the White House tends to grow differentially complacent in off-year and midterm elections.
Second, the results suggest there was also real vote-switching among political independents and “soft” Democrats. Although we can’t be sure that anyone is changing their minds unless we have panel data — repeat survey observations from the same people that show whether attitudinal change is real or a result of changing political compositions of people taking surveys — we can be reasonably confident this happened last week as marginal counties swung more against Democrats even after you control for differences in turnout.
Given this, Democrats have two problems to solve before next year’s midterms:
How to keep as many moderate and independent voters as possible.
How to keep turnout high among their base.
My thoughts principally concern the latter issue. Many of the progressives and leftists I know have concluded from Tuesday’s results that the Democratic base didn’t turn out for McAuliffe for two related reasons. First, because Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats haven’t been able to accomplish what they promised ahead of the 2020 elections or during the president’s state of the union address this last spring. And second, because Biden simply isn’t progressive enough to be a mobilizing force for them. They voted against Donald Trump in 2020, not for Biden, they say.
Of course, you have to consider the source. Their analysis is a standard ideological critique of a non-ideological president! But there seems to be some truth to what they’re saying. Biden’s approval rating among young people in YouGov’s polling, for example, has converged on his among older age cohorts, signaling disproportionate dissatisfaction among young people (as they are typically a very blue group).
However, we have to be careful not to jump to conclusions. My progressive bubble of friends has used these facts to argue McAuliffe would have won in Virginia if only Congressional Democrats had passed the Build Back Better Act (BBB) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework (BIF) bill before the contest.
Yet while I think this could have energized some base Democratic voters, we must also consider what happens on the other side of the aisle. There is a good amount of political science evidence that shows voters punish parties in power when their agenda drifts too far to the left or the right. It is reasonable to believe that shifting the scope of the federal government so far to the left in September or October could have also pushed more moderates over the edge to support Youngkin.
It sounds obvious, but it is very important to remember that they are both benefits and consequences to any strategy.
. . .
Since the House passed BIF late on Friday, we should be able to test these theories over the next few weeks. If Biden’s approval rating jumps with young Democrats and self-described liberals, we’ll know whether their agenda is mobilizing and have useful insights for the midterms next year. We’ll also get to see if evaluations of the president turn more negative among independents.
Any takes on Pennsylvania? Right next door to NJ and we really didn’t move at all compared to 2020 , Republicans won Supreme Court race 51-49 which is really close to their state auditor and treasurer wins
I've been seeing several takes from the VA election.
1. Not passing BIF cost Democrats the VA election.
2. The party that holds the Presidency takes loses during non-Presidential elections.
3. Not passing BBB depressed Democratic turnout.
4. Voters dislike BBB because it is too liberal and costs too much.
5. Critical Race Theory cost Democrats votes by alienating voters.
Would getting good media coverage by the passage of BIF really have made a difference?
Voters want Democrats to deliver. A potential boost to Biden's approval rating could have helped McAuliffe. Would that move voters towards Democratic candidates like McAuliffe and would it have been enough for him to win. Maybe.
Did the fact that Democrats hold the White House cause them to do poorly in Tuesday's election?
Historically this makes a lot of sense. Maybe people are overreacting with their takes?
Would the passage of BBB help turnout Democrats?
I think Democrats are frustrated with the lack of progress with core Democratic priorities. Much like voters who were frustrated with BIF not passing, would they boost Biden's approval rating and turnout for Democrats.
Do voters dislike BBB because it is too liberal and costs too much?
From the polling I've seen, BBB has the support of a majority of Americans. I'm not convinced that BBB was the problem.
It seems to me we unnecessarily search for complex answers whilst more mundane answers are at hand. McAuliffe didn’t appear to give voters sufficient reasons to vote for him and continually tried to portray Youngkin as Trump redux. He was also running against 48 years or so of observable outcomes wherein the winner of this race comes from the party opposed to the winner of the presidential election concluded one year prior. As for Murphy and NJ you didn’t expound much on that but it seems voter enthusiasm against Murphy reared it’s head as Murphy lost big in two large population counties (Ocean and Monmouth) that are traditional Republican bastions and growing more so. Murphy did buck the 48 year old trend which accounts for something. Hard to say if Covid played a role in NJ but I wouldn’t discount it. Thanks for your post!
Doesn't McAuliffe deserve some credit? A former incumbent should be able to run on his record or at least demonstrated competence but McAuliffe had negligible edge over a newbie on handling of key issues, the economy and coronavirus.
But did younger voters care about the BIF (seen as road and bridges and very necessary) or about expanding the safety net? And that's not there yet. I suspect Biden needs both and to advertise them.
Any takes on Pennsylvania? Right next door to NJ and we really didn’t move at all compared to 2020 , Republicans won Supreme Court race 51-49 which is really close to their state auditor and treasurer wins
Hi Elliott,
I've been seeing several takes from the VA election.
1. Not passing BIF cost Democrats the VA election.
2. The party that holds the Presidency takes loses during non-Presidential elections.
3. Not passing BBB depressed Democratic turnout.
4. Voters dislike BBB because it is too liberal and costs too much.
5. Critical Race Theory cost Democrats votes by alienating voters.
Would getting good media coverage by the passage of BIF really have made a difference?
Voters want Democrats to deliver. A potential boost to Biden's approval rating could have helped McAuliffe. Would that move voters towards Democratic candidates like McAuliffe and would it have been enough for him to win. Maybe.
Did the fact that Democrats hold the White House cause them to do poorly in Tuesday's election?
Historically this makes a lot of sense. Maybe people are overreacting with their takes?
Would the passage of BBB help turnout Democrats?
I think Democrats are frustrated with the lack of progress with core Democratic priorities. Much like voters who were frustrated with BIF not passing, would they boost Biden's approval rating and turnout for Democrats.
Do voters dislike BBB because it is too liberal and costs too much?
From the polling I've seen, BBB has the support of a majority of Americans. I'm not convinced that BBB was the problem.
https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/11/3/voters-continue-to-support-the-build-back-better-agenda
Did Critical Race Theory alienate rural white voters?
If voters vote on social/cultural issues this is a possibility. I'm not sure if there is enough evidence to make this conclusion.
I'm not entirely sure on what conclusion to draw. Maybe it's a combination of all five?
I hope you are having a good weekend!
Elliot
It seems to me we unnecessarily search for complex answers whilst more mundane answers are at hand. McAuliffe didn’t appear to give voters sufficient reasons to vote for him and continually tried to portray Youngkin as Trump redux. He was also running against 48 years or so of observable outcomes wherein the winner of this race comes from the party opposed to the winner of the presidential election concluded one year prior. As for Murphy and NJ you didn’t expound much on that but it seems voter enthusiasm against Murphy reared it’s head as Murphy lost big in two large population counties (Ocean and Monmouth) that are traditional Republican bastions and growing more so. Murphy did buck the 48 year old trend which accounts for something. Hard to say if Covid played a role in NJ but I wouldn’t discount it. Thanks for your post!
Doesn't McAuliffe deserve some credit? A former incumbent should be able to run on his record or at least demonstrated competence but McAuliffe had negligible edge over a newbie on handling of key issues, the economy and coronavirus.
But did younger voters care about the BIF (seen as road and bridges and very necessary) or about expanding the safety net? And that's not there yet. I suspect Biden needs both and to advertise them.