There was a lot of news last week that we could talk about today. Events included Kyrsten Sinema’s (likely fatal) blow to Democrats’ efforts on voting rights, Joe Biden’s speech on his proposals, the invalidation of Ohio’s new Congressional gerrymander, and several retirements among House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. But I want to instead send you a niche story about how the White House is using — or, in this case, not using — polling.
Biden’s deputy chief of staff Jennifer O’Malley Dillon on Thursday circulated an internal memo (soon thereafter shared with the press) which called a recent Quinnipiac University poll of Biden’s approval rating an “outlier,” and blamed it for using a sampling method which most pollsters have “abandoned” (you do not need to read between the lines to infer the White House’s tone here). See, Quinnipiac University samples Americans by calling them on phone at random (known among pollsters as “random digit dialing” or “RDD” sampling). O’Malley Dillon blames some particularities of this method for its own liver status and urges people to pay attention to the average.
But while the Quinnipiac poll is an outlier — it gives Biden a 33% approval when the average is closer to 42 or 43%, depending on the method one uses to aggregate — this is not because it calls people at random.
I think O’Malley Dillon is confusing a few things in her memo. She writes that RDD “makes it easier for respondents to be undecided on the President’s jobs rating … Some pollsters push harder than others to prompt wavering respondents to share which of the options they're leaning toward. This method is more at risk of response bias issues.” The theory here is that all the undecideds in the Q poll are actually closet Biden supporters. But RDD itself is not responsible for the question options! Quinnipiac could just as easily omit the “don’t know” option from their list of potential responses to the approval question, and maybe the numbers would be lower and Biden approval higher. Though, to be sure, I find the claim that all the undecideds would actually support Biden to be very dubious.
This error is not so big a deal in isolation. Polling is hard and methodology is complex! We can’t expect everyone to know where certain biases may be coming from.
Instead, the important takeaway from this episode is what the White House exposes in showing its hand. They are keenly aware of the power that public opinion gives (or takes away from) the president, and have apparently made it part of their mission to both (a) be hyper-attuned to public impressions of Biden’s administration and (b) shore up public perceptions of him by circulating favorable polling data. In this case, they are doing that by correcting the press when it focuses too much on one survey.
I’m personally all for that. To me, while poorly executed and methodologically mistaken in parts, O’Malley Dillon’s memo signals that the White House wants to be a presidency for a majority of Americans. I think probably confers some signifiant benefits back to the people, perhaps by steering it away from actions that are unpopular and to those which the public favors. That’s what a good president should do.
I wonder what you think?
Happy Saturday everyone, and thanks as ever for subscribing,
I agree that the White House wants to show more polling data that is more favorable to the President which hopefully gives Biden more political power and standing. As Biden is seen as politically weak and unable to deliver, supporters are upset and putting pressure on Biden. There are many different in opinions from black supporters who are upset about voting rights being stalled, activists from the left, ect, to even more conservative supporters on what Biden needs to do.
Biden's lack of political standing emboldens people who do not necessarily support the President's agenda like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. If Biden's approval rating was higher, would they be more inclined to support his policies? Maybe, but a lot of it depends on their support of the filibuster and I don't think that will change even if Biden has high approval ratings. While Biden wants to enact policies that the majority of Americans support which could possibly boost his political standing, Biden is "stuck" because he doesn't have votes in Congress. He will likely stay unpopular.
-Elliot
Biden Backers 'Not Seeing the Results' a Year Into His Term
Hi Elliott,
I agree that the White House wants to show more polling data that is more favorable to the President which hopefully gives Biden more political power and standing. As Biden is seen as politically weak and unable to deliver, supporters are upset and putting pressure on Biden. There are many different in opinions from black supporters who are upset about voting rights being stalled, activists from the left, ect, to even more conservative supporters on what Biden needs to do.
Biden's lack of political standing emboldens people who do not necessarily support the President's agenda like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. If Biden's approval rating was higher, would they be more inclined to support his policies? Maybe, but a lot of it depends on their support of the filibuster and I don't think that will change even if Biden has high approval ratings. While Biden wants to enact policies that the majority of Americans support which could possibly boost his political standing, Biden is "stuck" because he doesn't have votes in Congress. He will likely stay unpopular.
-Elliot
Biden Backers 'Not Seeing the Results' a Year Into His Term
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-01-15/biden-supporters-apoplectic-one-year-into-his-presidency