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Midterms notepad | #204 – August 7, 2022
Kansas, cross-pressured voters, and the changing* political environment
G. Elliott Morris
Aug 7
8
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Midterms notepad | #204 – August 7, 2022
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The Latino shift to Republicans is real, but it's (mostly) not about whether someone has a degree | #203 – July 24, 2022
Thoughts on "education polarization" and a new study claiming Hispanics did not move right at all from 2016 to 2020
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 25
6
2
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The Latino shift to Republicans is real, but it's (mostly) not about whether someone has a degree | #203 – July 24, 2022
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Saturday thread for July 17-23, 2022: Why are young Democrats so down on Biden?
Here is a passage from a recent article about the New York Times/Siena College poll published earlier this month: A survey from The New York Times and…
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 23
5
1
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Saturday thread for July 17-23, 2022: Why are young Democrats so down on Biden?
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Polling and path dependency | #202 – July 17, 2022
Thank you all for making pub week for Strength in Numbers a success
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 17
9
6
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Polling and path dependency | #202 – July 17, 2022
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Buy my new book STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them
A one-of-a-kind book about the history of polling, THE mechanics of modern surveys, and role of polls in our democracy
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 12
7
2
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Buy my new book STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them
gelliottmorris.substack.com
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The Supreme Court's Dobbs decision may have given the Democrats a boost for the midterms | #201– July 10, 2022
Polls of the US House race have moved 1-2 points toward the Democrats over the last month. But surveys are noisy, and Democrats may be more responsive…
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 11
5
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The Supreme Court's Dobbs decision may have given the Democrats a boost for the midterms | #201– July 10, 2022
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Q&A #2: Multiparty democracy, candidate quality in Senate elections, and Constitutional amendments
With additional posts on the Supreme Court and Australian elections
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 5
2
3
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Q&A #2: Multiparty democracy, candidate quality in Senate elections, and Constitutional amendments
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America is not its minority | #200 – July 3, 2022
Data from an eventful week; and on being patriotic when everything is falling apart
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 4
4
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America is not its minority | #200 – July 3, 2022
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Saturday thread for June 26-July 2, 2022: Some sources of hope for Democrats emerge
There has been a tendency in Washington over the past year to assume disaster for the Democrats. They will certainly lose their House majority, …
G. Elliott Morris
Jul 2
9
7
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Saturday thread for June 26-July 2, 2022: Some sources of hope for Democrats emerge
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An analysis claiming one million voters switched to the GOP last year was fatally flawed
The authors misused voter file data, conflating estimates of party ID with real changes in registration. The error was fixed by other analysts who find…
G. Elliott Morris
Jun 30
12
2
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An analysis claiming one million voters switched to the GOP last year was fatally flawed
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Saturday thread for June 19-25, 2022: Why the Supreme Court needs democratic legitimacy
The Supreme Court did two things yesterday when it overturned previous cases establishing a women’s federal right to an abortion. First and fore…
G. Elliott Morris
Jun 25
4
1
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Saturday thread for June 19-25, 2022: Why the Supreme Court needs democratic legitimacy
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Saturday thread for June 12-18, 2022: January 6 and voter psychology
The biggest political news this week is about the House January 6 committee’s ongoing public hearings about the 2021 attack on Congress. While t…
G. Elliott Morris
Jun 18
7
2
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Saturday thread for June 12-18, 2022: January 6 and voter psychology
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